2012-06-07 08:49:16 - Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
This latest Slovakia Oil & Gas Report sees the country remaining a minor oil producer over the coming years, while adding modestly to oil demand. Slovakian oil production should rise slightly from 4,270 barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 4,340b/d in 2015. This will be an inadequate amount to meet oil demand which we forecast to increase from 82,950b/d in 2010 to 95,730b/d by 2015. A similar story should be expected in gas, with the country expected to consume 7.68bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2015, up 23% on 2010 levels. Production will lag far behind with output of only 0.11bcm in 2010 falling only slightly to 0.10bcm by 2015.
The long-term picture will be much the same with
gas production likely to fall further behind demand. Slovenia could be consuming as much as 9.40bcm by 2020, while gas production is expected to remain static at 2015 levels of 0.10bcm, necessitating imports of as much as 9.30bcm. Oil consumption is also likely to grow, to 110,980b/d by 2020 which will be 16% higher than in 2015 and as much as 34% more than in 2010. Oil production on the other hand should fall further from its current levels to below the 4,000b/d in 2020.
Although Russia will continue to dominate oil supply in the region, backed by huge and under-exploited reserves, the Caspian states have an important role to play, with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan an increasingly significant factor. The growth rate in Russian oil supply has slowed appreciably since the early-2000s but the acceleration of Caspian expansion means that the region will make a growing contribution to world oil production.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan´s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Slovakia ranks joint 10th, ahead of Croatia and Romania, in our composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is ranked equal 11th with Uzbekistan in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings. Licensing, privatisation and country risk factors help its score, although these are offset by hydrocarbons weakness. The country performs better in our downstream Business Environment ratings. Nevertheless, progress much further up the rankings from 6th place seems highly unlikely over the medium term. Country risk factors are generally favourable and there is an established competitive landscape.
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