2014-01-04 05:29:10 - Fast Market Research recommends "Slovenia Business Forecast Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Political instability will remain elevated as the four-party government coalition attempts to push through harsh austerity measures that will likely prompt parliamentary tensions and social unrest. The short-term economic outlook has deteriorated sharply due to the deep banking sector crisis, forthcoming fiscal tightening, and soaring unemployment.
Though the new government has been able to stave off the immediate threat of a bailout, this still remains a real possibility for 2014 if it is unable to implement its ambitious fiscal plan.
Major Forecast Changes
There have been no major changes to our forecasts this quarter.
Key Risks To Outlook
Politics remains a key risk to the national reform programme, with the details of how to slash the budget deficit during a downturn likely to highlight differences
between coalition partners. Any sign that the reform programme is at risk of delay or suspension will have an immediate and punishing impact on market sentiment towards Slovenia, pushing the country closer to a bailout.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/759043_slovenia_business_forecast_report_q1_ ..
A big risk to the Slovenian economy lies abroad. A major deterioration in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, or even just a greaterthan- expected slowdown in the core eurozone nations, would have severe knock-on effects on the Slovenian economy, not only via depressed trade and investment flows, but also via credit channels and broader economic sentiment.
Partial Table of Contents:
Major Forecast changes
Key risks to outlook
chapter 1: political outlook
BMi political risk ratings
stress test results Will Determine eu involvement
- While passing the vote of confidence was modestly positive for Slovenia's sovereign credentials, the results of the stress tests at the end of December will ultimately decide whether Slovenia is forced into taking a bailout or not.
taBle: Political oVerVie W
Long- term political outlook
economic slump a test For stability
- Although the EU will remain a policy anchor for Slovenia over the long term, massive economic pressures will be a major test for the country's political institutions. A structural shift in policy and/or governing institutions is unlikely, though we caution that failure to develop a long-term growth model will raise challenges to governance, potentially exacerbating political party divisions.
chapter 2: economic outlook
BMi economic risk ratings
Growth remains elusive
taBle: G dP By eXPenditure
Bank capital shortfall remains Largest risk
- While we have revised up our 2013 budget estimates, considerable uncertainties surround the outlook for Slovenia's fiscal trajectory. While the government's austerity plans remain on track, the potential for a larger-than-expected capital shortfall in the banking sector poses a major risk to our forecasts.
taBle: fiscal P olicy
Balance of payments
surplus to Decline in Line With slow recovery
- We forecast Slovenia's external accounts to remain in surplus over the coming years, as ongoing austerity measures push down unit labour costs, boosting export competitiveness and reducing household purchasing power, while simultaneous deleveraging across the economy is likely to reduce financial account inflows.
regional Monetary policy
ecB cut: pushing on a string
regional exchange rate policy
euro strength unsettling the ecB
- Passive monetary tightening and improved investor sentiment will compound policy inertia from the European Central Bank (ECB), which has kept the euro strong heading into 2014. However, weak economic growth, high unemployment, euro strength, deflation risks, a potential long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) cliff and anaemic structural reform are becoming increasingly unpalatable for policymakers.
taBle: currency forecast
regional Banking sector
the state of the union
- A new era beckons for eurozone banking, as the European Central Bank is due to take over supervision of national credit institutions in 2014, which will herald the next stage of economic integration.
chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
the slovenian economy to 2022
convergence to slow Markedly
- We expect Slovenia's real macroeconomic convergence with the Western European developed states to continue through our 10-year forecast period, though at a far reduced pace to the decade leading up to 2007.
taBle: lonG-term macroeconomic forecasts
chapter 4: Business environment
BMi Business environment risk ratings
Business environment outlook
taBle: Bmi B usiness and oPeration risK ratinGs
taBle: Bmi leGal frameWorK ratinG
taBle: laBour force Quality
taBle: emer GinG euro Pe - annual fdi inflo Ws
taBle: trade and inVestment ratinGs
TABLE: TOP Ex PORT DESTInATIOnS (US$mn)
chapter 5: Key sectors
oil & Gas
taBle: oil Production, consumPtion and net eXPorts, 2011-2016
taBle: oil Production, consumPtion and net eXPorts, 2017-2022
taBle: Gas Production, consumPtion and net eXPorts, 2011-2016
taBle: Gas Production, consumPtion and net eXPorts, 2017-2022
TABLE: IT In DUSTRy - HISTORICAL DATA An D F ORECASTS (EURmn)
other Key sectors
TABLE: P HARmA S ECTOR K Ey In DICATORS
taBle: telecoms sector Key indicators
taBle: infrastructure sector Key indicators
taBle: food and drinK sector Key indicators
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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