2014-03-17 07:22:04 - Slovenia Business Forecast Report Q1 2014 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
Political instability will remain elevated as the four-party government coalition attempts to push through harsh austerity measures that will likely prompt parliamentary tensions and social unrest.
The short-term economic outlook has deteriorated sharply due to the deep banking sector crisis, forthcoming fiscal tightening, and soaring unemployment.
Though the new government has been able to stave off the immediate threat of a bailout, this still remains a real possibility for 2014 if it is unable to implement its ambitious fiscal plan.
Politics remains a key risk to the national reform programme, with the details of how to slash the budget deficit during a downturn likely to highlight differences between coalition partners. Any sign that the reform programme is at risk of delay or suspension
will have an immediate and punishing impact on market sentiment towards Slovenia, pushing the country closer to a bailout.
A big risk to the Slovenian economy lies abroad. A major deterioration in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, or even just a greaterthan- expected slowdown in the core eurozone nations, would have severe knock-on effects on the Slovenian economy, not only via depressed trade and investment flows, but also via credit channels and broader economic sentiment.
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