2012-09-05 09:55:08 - South Africa Business Forecast Report Q2 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
BMI sees the South African economy continuing its uneven recovery over the medium term, with real GDP growth forecast expected to slow to 2.7% in 2012 from an estimated 3.1% in 2011. Although the consumer sector is showing signs of life, the supply side is lagging behind and there are widespread concerns that the recovery is not sufficiently broad-based.
We forecast that South Africas repo rate will be kept steady at 5.50% throughout 2012. That said, we acknowledge that there are risks both to the upside and downside. Rates could be hiked if food price pressure escalate. Conversely, rates could be cut if the eurozone descends further into crisis.
Policy uncertainty is rising owing to question marks over whether President Jacob Zuma
will secure another term in office.
Major Forecast Changes
Given weak Q311 GDP data and various concerns regarding the global economic recovery, we have revised down our forecast for South African real GDP growth to 2.7% in 2012 from 3.9% previously.
Key Risks To Outlook
A sustained bout of global risk aversion with an attendant sharp outflow of portfolio funds.
A sudden uptick in domestic political risk.
A sustained period of high oil prices.The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
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