2013-02-21 09:26:09 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "South Africa Freight Transport Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI maintains our cautiously optimistic stance with regards to South Africa's freight transport sector in 2013. Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, our mining desk believes that growth will continue, which bodes well for the rail and ports sector in particular.
Headline Industry Data
* Rail freight growth will be 6.2% in 2013, and will average 3.8% to 2017.
* Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2013 is forecast to increase by 1.3%. Over the medium-term we project a 1.6% average annual increase.
* 2013 total trade growth is forecast at 3.8%, up from the estimated 1.3% expansion in 2012.
* Road freight volumes are set to expand by 6.2% in 2013,
and to average 5.9% over our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
Unified Rail System To Support SADC Growth: BMI believes that South African rail freight volumes could be given a boost in the coming years as the country seeks to establish a unified railway system with the landlocked African nations of Zimbabwe, Zambia and the DRC. The efficiencies this would provide could see more shippers looking to use the rail system for imports and exports.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536609_south_africa_freight_transport_report ..
Road Haulage Strike Hits Rand: BMI believes that the recent October 2012 strike by South African road haulage operators offers downside risk to our growth forecast for the sector. The dispute shows the importance of road haulage to the South African economy, while further demonstrating how the country is prone to industrial action in the freight transport sector.
Seasonal Support For Air Freight: BMI notes that the winter schedules of air freight carriers serving Middle Eastern and African countries are steadily being implemented. The yearly return of carriers to these trades will continue to support air freight volumes in the respective markets. The two regions have already been outperformers globally over the year-to-date, and we believe that the seasonal trade will help this trend continue through the remainder of 2012 and into 2013.
Key Risks To Outlook
Significant risks are posed to South Africa by the global headwinds facing the world economy - namely the ongoing European debt crisis and the potential of a hard landing in China. China in particular could be a real concern if growth continues to slow and the country begins to use its stockpiles of coal and iron ore, which would hit volumes of the commodities being transported on South African rail and through South African ports. The risk of strikes appear more elevated in the wake of the Marikana massacre, which could affect on freight transport volumes in the coming months.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Freight Transport
- Business Environment
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2010 - 2017
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2010 - 2017
- Road Haulage
- Table: Road Freight, 2010 - 2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010 - 2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010 - 2017 (US$mn)
- Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Economic Outlook
- Table: South Africa - Real Gdp Growth
- Table: South Africa - Major Gold Expansion Projects
- Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Road Haulage/Logistics
- Transnet Freight Rail (TFR)
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Table: Table: South Africa Political Overview System of Government
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Global Industry Overview
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
- Refiners: Faltering Light At The End Of The Tunnel
- Jet Fuel: Middle East Posts Strongest Demand As Global Air Traffic Slumps
- Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
- Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
- Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
- Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
- South Africa Demographic Data
- Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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