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South Africa Infrastructure Report Q1 2014

South Africa Infrastructure Market: New market analysis released

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2014-02-10 00:21:03 - South Africa Infrastructure Report Q1 2014 - a new market research report on

South Africa´s construction industry looks set to grow in line with our forecasts for 2013 as our view that the industry´s post-World Cup slump finally reached a bottom in 2012 and timidly returned to growth has played out. In light of officially revised data for the previous quarters of 2013 we are tweaking our forecast for real growth in the full year upwards to 2.2% from 1.9% as the industry historically finishes strongly in the last quarter. We maintain the view that we will see a cautiously positive growth story over our forecast period. We see annual real growth averaging 3.8% between 2014 and 2018 with downside risks remaining prevalent - namely difficulty in raising capital for projects, currency fluctuations,



social unrest and poor policy making.

Despite still lagging behind its regional peers in terms of growth rate, it is important to note that South Africa´s construction industry has begun its recovery after the collapse following the World Cup in 2010.

Following the 2010 World Cup government finances were pushed to the limit in order to complete projects on time. Hence, a drawback in funding and subsequent activity was noticed almost immediately after the tournament. Real growth decelerated from 7.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009 to 0.9% y-o-y in 2010. We are now seeing a return to sustainable growth, noting that levels are unlikely to ever return to those seen before the World Cup, as they were driven by an artificial stimulus and a front-loading of the project pipeline.

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Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

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