2012-09-06 08:49:09 - South Africa Retail Report Q1 2012 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
BMIs Q112 South Africa Retail Report forecasts that the countrys retail sales will grow by 50.7% from an estimated ZAR622.91bn (US$75.53bn) in 2011 to ZAR938.59bn (US$113.81bn) in 2015. Key factors behind this expansion will be underlying economic growth, rising disposable income, falling unemployment, increasing urbanisation and the emergence of a black middle class.
South Africas nominal GDP is estimated to be US$416.0bn for 2011, with 2010s real growth rate of 2.8% forecast increasing to 3.2% as the economy continues to recover. With the population increasing from an expected 50.5mn in 2011 to an estimated 51.4mn in 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise to US$12,056 by the end of this forecast period.
Consumer spending is being lifted by foreign visitors
to South Africa. Following a difficult 2009, foreign visitor numbers are again on the increase. Boosted by the football World Cup, the country recorded a 15.1% increase in tourist arrivals in 2010 to more than 8mn. Data for January-May 2011 show a favourable 7.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in tourist arrivals. Tourist expenditure was expected to increase from US$11.63mn in 2010 to US$12.90mn in 2011, then to US$14.09mn in 2012.
In 2005, 64.1% of the South African population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.8% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. By 2015, 64.3% of the population is expected to be economically active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age range is forecast to reach 38%. Growing urbanisation is also contributing to the vibrant retail sector, with a 26% increase in the number of urban households between 1994 and 2005. In 2005, less than 58% of the population was classified by the UN as urban but this is forecast to increase to more than 64% by 2015.
According to BMI data, sales of consumer electronics are expected to increase from US$8.22bn in 2011 to US$12.10bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of more than 47%. South Africas tech-literate, high-end consumer electronics market is the largest in Africa, and youthful demographics, rising incomes and a regional economic boom should all support expansion. Sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are forecast to grow by nearly 64%, from US$0.39bn in 2011 to US$0.63bn by 2015.
Vehicle sales are forecast to rise by nearly 88% from an expected 509,834 units in 2011 to 956,399 units in 2015. The size of the country, significant rural land coverage and the agricultural sector provide a substantial market for four-wheel drive vehicles, light pick-ups and SUVs.
We estimate that overall food consumption in South Africa in 2011 will account for 67.7% of total retail sales worth an estimated US$51.14bn. This is forecast to increase to 72.3% of overall retail sales by 2015. The South African mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, comfortably Africas largest in terms of value, is estimated to have been worth US$30.1bn in 2011. BMI expects its value to rise to US$51.2bn by 2015. Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2012 are predicted to amount to US$287.73bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMIs macroeconomic database, is forecast at US$788.24bn. In 2012, BMI predicts that South Africa and Saudi Arabia will together account for an estimated 58.0% of regional retail sales, with Israel accounting for a further 15.1%. By 2015, the combined share of South Africa and Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 58.5%. We put growth in regional retail sales for the period from 2012 to 2015 at 34.6%, or an average 10.4% per annum. The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
Click for report details: www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/Retail/Market-Research/South- ..
Browse all Retail Market Research Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/Retail/Market-Research?aCode= ..
Browse all Retail Company Profile Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/Retail/Company-Profile?aCode= ..
Browse all Latest Market Research Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All/Market-Research?aCode=f3f ..
Companiesandmarkets.com is a leading online business information aggregator with over 300,000 market reports and company profiles available to our clients. Our extensive range of reports are sourced from the leading publishers of business information and provide clients with the widest range of information available. In terms of company profiles, Companiesandmarkets.comâs online database allows clients access to market and corporate information to over 100,000 different companies. We provide clients with a fully indexed database of information where clients can find specific market reports on their niche industry sectors of interest.