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South Korea Agribusiness Report Q1 2014 - New Study Released


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2014-01-07 20:50:05 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "South Korea Agribusiness Report Q1 2014"

While we are sanguine towards the long-term outlook of South Korea's agricultural sector, we are concerned about the short-term restructuring of the industry due to a mismatch of domestic demand and supply of livestock. Our positive outlook towards the sector is predicated on the government's decision to gradually remove barriers to trade and move up the value chain. Indeed, the expansion of education and financial support for farmers to facilitate entry into the food processing business, as well as plans to revitalise agriculture tourism, will yield results for the industry over the longer term and help it to remain relevant to the South Korean economy. However, we highlight that being able to handle the transition for local farmers - especially

livestock farmers - as the industry consolidates in the near term is key in order for the government to facilitate the growth of this new stage of the agriculture sector.

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/759098_south_korea_agribusiness_report_q1_20 ..

Key Forecasts

* Beef production growth to 2016/17: 17.6% to 367,000 tonnes. Even with the anticipated increase in local beef output, the country will remain reliant on imports to meet demand. Indeed, base effects are the key reason for the significant growth rate.
* Milk production growth to 2016/17: 8.2% to 2.2mn tonnes. This growth is likely to be supported by improved yields per cow and favourable pricing structures for farmers based on a new agreement to raise the average price of raw milk.
* Corn consumption growth to 2017: 25.4% to 9.8mn tonnes. This will be buoyed by strong and steady demand from the animal feed sector. In particular, the swine feed sector should be the main consumer of corn for feed processing.
* 2014 BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$36.0bn (down from US$36.7bn in 2013; forecast to decline annually by 1.3% on average to 2017)
* 2014 real GDP growth: 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (up from 2.1% in 2013; predicted to average 3.9% from 2012 until 2017).
* 2014 consumer price index: 1.85% y-o-y (up from 1.5% in 2013; predicted to average 3.0% to 2017)
* 2014 central bank policy rate: 2.75% (up from 2.5% in 2013; predicted to average 3.4% from 2012 until 2017).

Key Developments

Yield of rice production in 2013/14 is expected to jump by 7.8% to 6.76 tonnes/hectare, thus boosting output of the grain by 5% on the year despite a fall in area harvested. According to the USDA, even though Korea experienced severe unfavorable weather spells in tillering and booting stages in tandem with frequent rains and insufficient daylight from early June through early August, favourable weather development in September caused rice yields to recover well.

Corn imports in 2013/14 are expected to come in at 9.0mn tonnes, the highest in five years, according to the US Department of Agriculture. This is on the back of sustained demand from the feed processing sector. Indeed, in the first 11 months of 2013/13, swine compound feed production increased by 15.9% over the same period in the previous year. With corn prices expected to be depressed in the near future, corn will still be the feed compound input of choice.

The government has announced the following additional measures to mitigate the effects of declining beef prices:

* Increase sales of discounted Hanwoo beef.
* Increase amount of Hanwoo beef supplied to the military.
* Double the number of butcher-styled restaurants from the current 321 to 600.
* Increase the amount of guarantee ceilings by the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Corporation from KRW 100mn to KRW 200mn.
* Increase the planted forage area from 350,000 hectares in 2013 to 370,000 hectares in 2014.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Rice Outlook
- Table: South Korea Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: South Korea Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: South Korea Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: South Korea Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: South Korea Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: South Korea Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: South Korea Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: South Korea Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: South Korea Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Forecast
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: Bmi Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Asia Machinery Outlook
- Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
- Asia GM Outlook
- Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
- Table: Select Countries - GM Crops, 2012
- Asia Fertiliser Outlook
- Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Canned Food

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=759098&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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