2013-02-28 15:04:39 - Fast Market Research recommends "Spain Power Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Spain's weak economy and poor growth prospects make for a bleak short-term outlook for the country's power market. In an attempt to bridge the gap between energy costs and revenues from electricity generation (and as part of a wider array of austerity measures), the government suspended feed-in tariffs for new renewable energy projects in January 2012, and in September 2012 it passed new regulations which require energy producers to pay a 6% tax on any income they earn from generating energy. Already suffering as electricity consumption rates are declining, utilities are aghast at these latest measures: Endesa and Iberdrola have warned they may close nuclear power station Garona before its July 2013 deadline, because the 6% tax will
make the plant financially unviable. Endesa has even gone as far to suggest that such a tax will lead to the closure of all nuclear power plants in Spain once they reach 40 years of operations, as extending them beyond this time frame will be too costly. It is a difficult time for Spain's economy, and the power sector is feeling the pinch too, as austerity measures increase.
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Spain has a varied energy mix, tapping into thermal, nuclear, hydroelectric and renewable sources of power, thereby reducing the country's dependence on one source of electricity. Gas continues to account for the majority of energy provision, with imports from Algeria accounting for over 25% of Spain's gas requirements. In the 2012-2021 period, Spain's overall power generation is expected to increase to 287.67 terrawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 4.0% gain in gas-fired generation.
Following an estimated increase in real GDP of 0.76% for 2011 and a decrease of 2.1% in 2012, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 0.93% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from an estimated 46.8mn in 2012 to 48.9mn by 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from an estimated 249.5TWh in 2012 to 289.0TWh by end-2021. In 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast to be 1.2%. The country's theoretical net export capability by 2016 is forecast to be 8.2TWh, which we see reversing over the second half of the forecast period to see Spain requiring imports of 7.2TWh by 2021.
The key trends and developments in the Spanish electricity market are:
* In September 2012 the government passed its new tax on utilities, which will see a 6% charge on all income earned from generating energy, including payment from FiTs. While the government view this tax as an essential means of closing the energy deficit, utilities are making their objections clear - Endesa has particularly stressed that such a tax will make electricity generation in the Canary and Balearic Islands financially unviable.
* Iberdrola and Endesa announced in November 2012 that they plan to sell their share in the Medgaz gasduct, between Algeria and Spain. They hold 30% and 12% shares in the project, respectively. Gas Natural Fenosa will take a share in the project, following its acquisition of 10% of Sonatrach; Sonatrach holds a 36% share in the Medgaz project.
* Spain, France, Portugal and Morocco's electricity transmission and distribution firms have launched a webpage which will increase transparency regarding the interconnection of these four grids, electricity prices and information about electricity consumption.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Spain Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Spain Industry Forecast
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Spain Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 2012-2017
- Table: Spain Total Electricity Generation Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2017-2021
- Table: Spain Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 2012-2017
- Table: Spain Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2016-2021
- Table: Power Reactors Operating In Spain (September 2012)
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Spain Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 2012-2017
- Table: Spain Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Spain Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: Spain Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2021
- Table: Spain Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: Spain Trade Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2021
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Table: Electricity Prices In EU Member States, May 2012
- Spain Power Projects Database
- Table: Spain Power Projects Database
- Union Fenosa
- Developed States Industry Overview
- Table: Real GDP Growth (%)
- Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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