2012-11-15 20:10:52 - Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

Both Sudan and South Sudan face serious challenges in terms of economic growth, as they face very high inflation, severe fiscal constraints, low oil exports and underdeveloped non-oil economies.

Although there has been some headway in reaching an agreement on oil transit fees, many of the disputes between Sudan and South Sudan remain unresolved, and political risk remains elevated, with a high likelihood of ongoing skirmishes both within and across borders.

Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded Sudan´s real GDP growth in 2012 from negative 1.4% to negative 5.3% and 2013 from 3.4% to 2.1%, on account of ongoing government austerity, high inflation and lacklustre export data recently released by officials.

We have downwardly revised Sudan´s balance of payments forecasts due to the sharp

 

 

decline in oil export revenues, and we now see the current account deficit reaching 12.1% of GDP in 2012, easing to 11. 3% in 2013.

Key Risks To Outlook

A major upside risk to our outlook would be a resolution of the dispute with South Sudan, leading to a resumption of oil production in South Sudan – a development which would support both countries´ economies.

If the ongoing violence – both across national borders and within them – deteriorated into full-blown military conflict, civil war or other seriously disruptive event, we would have to reassess many of our forecasts.

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