2013-01-01 02:29:54 - Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

In both Sudan and South Sudan, high and rising inflation poses a significant risk to economic stability, while the shutdown of the oil sector is having a major negative impact on both countries´ exports, government expenditures and overall growth outlook. Political risk remains elevated. Although the two countries have stepped away from the brink of all-out war for the time being, the underlying points of contention remain unresolved, and domestic unrest is on the rise.

Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded Sudan´s real GDP growth from 1.1% to negative 1.4% on account of ongoing government austerity, high price growth and a weak currency, among other challenges. We have revised Sudan´s inflation forecasts owing to the sharp uptick seen in June. We

 

 

now expect headline inflation to be 42.9% at the end of 2012

Key Risks To Outlook

A major upside risk to our outlook would be a resolution of the dispute with South Sudan, leading to a resumption of oil production in South Sudan – a development which would support both countries´ economies. If the violence – both across national borders and within them – deteriorated into full-blown military conflict, civil war or other seriously disruptive event, we would have to reassess many of our forecasts.

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