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Sweden Business Forecast Report Q1 2014 - New Market Study Published


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2014-01-04 04:24:02 - New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Sweden Business Forecast Report Q1 2014"

Sweden's status as an open trade-oriented economy means that its growth prospects will depend heavily upon a continued recovery in the rest of Europe.

Although the Swedish economy has experienced several quarters of acute weakness, leading indicators suggest that the outlook for household consumption and business investment is brightening alongside a recovery in European demand.

Sweden is among the best positioned developed economies in the world, with a highly productive workforce, a fiscal surplus and a stable banking system, but the rising level of household debt poses a structural threat.

Major Forecast Changes

O ur forecasts for real GDP growth in 2013, 2014 and 2015 are 0.8%, 2.4% and 2.8% respectively, down from 1.1%, 2.7%, and 2.9%.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Growth Risks From Europe:

A relapse in the European economic recovery would leave Sweden's open economy vulnerable to external demand shocks.

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/759042_sweden_business_forecast_report_q1_20 ..

Partial Table of Contents:

executive summary
core Views
Major Forecast changes
Key risks to outlook
chapter 1: political outlook
sWot analysis
BMi political risk ratings
Domestic politics
social Democrats Likely to Win in 2014
- The ruling centre-right coalition government led by Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt looks increasingly likely to lose the September 2014 elections. Unless economic growth picks up significantly in the coming quarters, buoying support for the incumbents, we believe that a coalition led by the Social Democrats will form the next government.
TABLE: DoMESTIC Po LITICS
Long- term political outlook
stability assured
- With a long-term political risk rating of 94.5 (out of 100), Sweden is rated among the most structurally stable countries in the world. Benefiting from an advanced level of institutional development, a long history of democratic governance and an established foreign policy based on neutrality, the country faces limited underlying risks to political stability over the long term. We stress, however, that Sweden is in the process of a shift in economic policy towards greater liberalisation and foreign integration, which is expected to continue over the next 10 years.
chapter 2: economic outlook
sWot analysis
BMi economic risk ratings
economic activity
strong Growth Will Have to Wait
- We have lowered our 2013 real GDP growth estimate for Sweden to 0.8% from 1.1% due to poor Q313 real GDP data. Survey data and other leading indicators suggest that the outlook for household consumption and business investment is brightening alongside a recovery in European demand, and we are forecasting an acceleration in Swedish growth to 2.4% in 2014.
taBle: G dP By eXPenditure, real GroWtH %
Monetary policy
Balanced risks For riksbank
- With very weak incoming growth data and deflationary pressures mounting, we believe that there is rising likelihood of a rate cut at the December 17 meeting. However, it will be a very close decision based upon the bank's judgment of the balance of the risks between stimulating further household credit expansion on the one hand, and potential deflationary pressures taking hold on the other. For now, we maintain our forecast of no rate changes until late 2014.
taBle: inflation
Fiscal policy
Budget Deficits To Persist Until 2017
- We continue to forecast a budget deficit in 2014 and 2015, but the government debt load will remain at very manageable levels. The major risk stems from further stimulus spending ahead of the September 2014 elections.
taBle: fiscal P olicy
executive summary
core Views
Major Forecast changes
Key risks to outlook
chapter 1: political outlook
sWot analysis
BMi political risk ratings
Domestic politics
social Democrats Likely to Win in 2014
- The ruling centre-right coalition government led by Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt looks increasingly likely to lose the September 2014 elections. Unless economic growth picks up significantly in the coming quarters, buoying support for the incumbents, we believe that a coalition led by the Social Democrats will form the next government.
TABLE: DoMESTIC Po LITICS
Long- term political outlook
stability assured
- With a long-term political risk rating of 94.5 (out of 100), Sweden is rated among the most structurally stable countries in the world. Benefiting from an advanced level of institutional development, a long history of democratic governance and an established foreign policy based on neutrality, the country faces limited underlying risks to political stability over the long term. We stress, however, that Sweden is in the process of a shift in economic policy towards greater liberalisation and foreign integration, which is expected to continue over the next 10 years.
chapter 2: economic outlook
sWot analysis
BMi economic risk ratings
economic activity
strong Growth Will Have to Wait

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=759042&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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