2012-10-24 13:45:19 - New Healthcare market report from Business Monitor International: "Switzerland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012"

BMI View: While the patent cliff and the consequent availability of generic drugs, as well as price cuts on generic medicines and their increasing affordability, will work towards increasing the consumption of generic medicines in Switzerland, BMI believes the government needs to do more to alter patients' attitudes towards these drugs as this the main deterrent of growth.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: CHF6.77bn (US$7.63bn) in 2011 to CHF6.58bn (US$7.00bn) in 2012; -2.8% decline in local currency terms and -8.2% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: CHF65.30bn (US$73.6bn) in 2011 to CHF67.42bn (US$71.72bn) in 2012; +3.2% growth in local currency terms and -2.6% in US dollar terms.
* Medical devices: CHF4.77bn (US$5.38bn) in 2011 to CHF4.76bn (US$5.06bn) in 2012; -0.3% growth

in local currency terms and -5.8% in US dollar terms.


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Risk/Reward Ratings: In BMI's risk/reward ratings (RRRs) for Western Europe in Q412, Switzerland has maintained its position as the top market in the Western Europe matrix, above the UK and France. Switzerland's score for the quarter stands at 70.9, well above the regional average of 65.5. However, BMI anticipates that Switzerland may slip down the world rankings in the medium- to long-term as large, highgrowth emerging markets such as Brazil and China become more alluring to multinational drugmakers.

Key trends and developments in the sector include:

* Multinational drugmaker Novartis posted a 4% decline in net sales in US dollar terms (+1% in constant currency terms) to US$14.30bn for Q212, compared with sales of US$14.92bn in Q211. The strength of the US dollar against most major currencies negatively affected sales by 5%. Secondquarter net income remained at US$2.7bn.
* Roche's H112 sales reached CHF22.4bn (US$23.1bn), up by 3% in local currency terms (-2.9% in US dollars; +4% in constant exchange rate terms) from CHF21.7bn (US$23.8bn) in H111.

BMI Economic View: Significant headwinds continue to face Swiss banks, which will hinder overall asset growth and profitability within the sector. Ongoing fiscal austerity, continuing eurozone woes, an increasingly stringent regulatory environment and the need for further deleveraging will see to it that the recovery in the Swiss banking sector takes years to play out. We also continue to see Swiss banks scaling down their investment banking arms and moving more towards higher-margin wealth management services over the medium term.

BMI Political View: We do not expect a proposed referendum on enshrining recently re-imposed quotas on immigration from Central and Eastern European states to go ahead. More likely will be that the quotas are extended for another year when they expire in 2013. However, we see scope for these measures to increase tensions with the EU.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Switzerland Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Switzerland Political SWOT
- Switzerland Economic SWOT
- Switzerland Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Western Europe Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412
- Rewards
- Risks
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
- Intellectual Property Regime
- Pricing Regime
- Pricing System Developments
- Reimbursement Regime
Industry Developments
- Epidemiology
- Health Insurance
- Healthcare Sector Financing
- Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Sector
- Research And Development Sector
- Biotechnology Sector
- Clinical Trials
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Economic Activity
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Medical Device Market Forecast
- Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016
- Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Company Developments
Company Profiles
- Local Companies
- Novartis
- Roche
- Merck-Serono
- Multinational Companies
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Pfizer
- Sanofi
- Merck & Co
Country Snapshot: Switzerland Demographic Data
- Section1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
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