2013-12-27 15:29:59 - New Defense market report from Business Monitor International: "Syria Defence & Security Report Q1 2014"
BMI's Syria Defence & Security report for Q114 examines: the country's civil war; the domestic, regional and international ramifications of the conflict; and Syria's place in the Middle East and the wider world. It also examines the country's armed forces and its military procurements.
The report argues that realistic development of the Syrian economy and its political structures is all but impossible while the country's civil war continues. Both outcomes of the conflict are fraught with risks. Should Assad remain in power, Syria will face isolation from the international community and be perceived as a pariah state. However, his ousting could usher in a renewed bout of violence as disparate factions, united only in their opposition to his regime, fight for
political control. Furthermore, there is every chance that should Assad eventually be removed from power, an Islamist regime would take its place.
Matters came to a head regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria's civil war in August 2013, when perhaps over 1,700 Syrian civilians may have been killed following a Sarin gas attack against the Ghouta suburb of Damascus by government forces. The attack triggered international condemnation, although despite the Obama administration describing the use of such weapons as a 'red line' which could herald US intervention in the conflict, military action has been postponed for now in the face of domestic opposition in the United States, as well as in the United Kingdom and France; both of which were expected to participate in any US-led military action.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754675_syria_defence_security_report_q1_2014 ..
Instead, a diplomatic solution is being pursued led by the Russians which will see the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the United Nations organisation charged with enforcing the Chemical Weapons convention collecting and destroying Assad's chemical weapons. As of October 2013, the OPCW was said to be half way through its task of checking Syrian sites reportedly involving in the stockpiling, deployment, design and production of chemical weapons. The OPCW said in October 2013 that the Syrian government was fully cooperative with the efforts to remove the country's chemical weapons capabilities.
There are some hopes that the new Iranian government of President Hassan Rouhani could strike a more conciliatory tone, to assist a negotiated peace in Syria. While it remains too soon to say what Iran's role in the crisis, in the wake of Rouhani's election will be, there are guarded grounds for optimism in this regard.
As of November 2013, the Syrian government remains in control of a number of areas in the west of the country. These include the cities of Latakia, Hama, significant parts of Damascus, Tartus and Jableh.
Almost the entirety of the Mediterranean coast is under the government's control. In terms of areas in the east near the border with Iraq, Al Hasakah is under government control, as is Palmyra in the centre of the country. The opposition remains in control of the central areas of Ar-Raqqah and Al-Thawrah, plus the northeast Damascus suburb of Douma, the town of Dael in the southwest, and the towns of Harem and Azmarin, on the Mediterranean coast, and Manbil and Al-Bab in western Syria. Meanwhile, neither the government of the opposition remains in control of Aleppo, and Daraa in the west of the country, the centre of the city of Homs, also in the west, and Deir ez-Zor and Qamishli in the east.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Syria Security SWOT
- Syria Defence SWOT
- Business Environment
- Defence Expenditure
- Table: Defence Expenditure
- Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Armed Forces
- Table: Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
- Defence Trade
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Syria - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- MENA Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Syria Risk Ratings
- Syria Defence Market Overview
- Arms Trade Overview
- Armed Forces and Government Spending
- Domestic Defence Industries
- Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Syria Security Overview
- Domestic Threats
- Regional Threats
- International Threats
- Middle East and Africa Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
- Global Political Outlook
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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