2012-11-17 08:04:33 - Fast Market Research recommends "Tanzania Agribusiness Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

For grains, we forecast a strong corn crop in 2012/13 thanks to a more supportive weather. This, in contrast with lower crops in the region because of recurring droughts, will support export demand from the country, leaving domestic prices high. The rice and sugar industries are still attracting investment from foreign companies, especially from Asia. The coffee crop is set to rebound strongly in 2012/13 and the country's exports will participate to our view for loosening supply.

Key Forecasts

* Rice production growth to 2015/16: 12.1% to 1.1mn tonnes. The rice sector will benefit from increased investment from foreign companies which plan to cultivate rice as a food security crop. Also, new varieties could boost yields in the medium term.
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Corn consumption growth to 2015/16: 22.7% to 4.1mn tonnes. A combination of enhanced yields (contributing to lower prices) and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.
* Coffee production growth to 2015/16: 29.5% to 1.2 tonnes. Tanzania has recently accelerated its replanting programme and plans to plant 16mn new coffee trees for the next season. Over the long term, we also expect strong export demand to lift coffee prices and contribute to increased income for small-farmer producers.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 7.4% y-o-y (up from 7.0% in 2012; forecast to average 7.1% over 2011-2016).
* Consumer price inflation: 9.3% year-on-year average in 2013 (down from 15.9% in 2012; forecast to average 9.4% over 2011-2016).
?? BMI universe agribusiness market value: 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$1.9bn in 2012/13, forecast to increase by an annual average of 3.0% between 2010/11 and 2015/16.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/499889_tanzania_agribusiness_report_q4_2012. ..


Key Views

Significant demand for Tanzania's diverse rice varieties, especially from neighbouring countries, is keeping prices at high levels on the domestic market. This is in spite of a strong local production of 1.1mn tonnes in 2011/12, a 19.2% increase compared to 2010/11. Because of the production surplus, farmers sold increased quantities of rice to Kenya, Uganda, DR Congo, Malawi, Burundi, Rwanda and Zambia because of elevated global prices and good profitability for the crop.

We have revised up our 2012/13 coffee forecast for Tanzania as good rainfall during plantings have helped flowering for the crop. We now forecast coffee production to increase 71.0% y-o-y to 917,000 60kg bags in 2012/13. This will come from base effects as our output estimate for 2011/12 was revised down to 535,000 bags because of droughts in the country's main growing regions. The increase in output will also be due to the country's biennial production cycle and as the country is entering an up-year in its cycle. In line with this, the quality of the 2012/13 should also be much better than in 2011/12.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Tanzania Agricultural SWOT
- Tanzania Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
- Tanzania Grains Outlook
- Table: Tanzania Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Tanzania Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Tanzania Rice Outlook
- Table: Tanzania Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Tanzania Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Tanzania Coffee Outlook
- Table: Tanzania Coffee Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Tanzania Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Tanzania Sugar Outlook
- Table: Tanzania Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Tanzania Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa: Momentum Waning
- Coffee: Temporary Rally
- Cotton: Forming A Base
- Palm Oil: Underperforming The Complex
- Sugar: Scope For A Moderate Rebound
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
- Monthly Grains Update
- Wheat: Little Relief From Southern Hemisphere
- Corn: Looking The Weakest
- Soybean: Prices To Stay Relatively Supported
- Rice: Still The Underperformer
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
- Africa GM Outlook
- Table: Select Countries - Global Corn Yield Rank For 2012/13 Season
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
- Africa Machinery Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Table: Food Consumption, 2009-2016
- Table: Fish, 2009-2016
- Table: Corn Oil, 2009-2016
- Drink
- Beer
- Table: Beer, 2009-2016
- Carbonated Soft Drinks
- Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks, 2009-2016
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016
Country Snapshot
- Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

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