2012-06-29 09:41:27 - New Fixed Networks market report from Business Monitor International: "Tanzania Telecommunications Report Q3 2012"

The Q312 update to BMI's Tanzania telecoms market report contains analysis and forecasts for the mobile, mobile ARPU, fixed-line and internet sectors. The report utilises market data from the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) and the country's leading telecoms operators. It also contains analysis of recent regulatory and industry developments that may affect competition dynamics in the telecoms market as well as our five-year growth forecasts, through 2016.

According to the TCRA, there were 25.662mn mobile subscribers in Tanzania at the end of 2011 as the market added nearly 1.9mn subscribers in Q411. This equates to growth of 7.8% q-o-q and 22.3% during 2011, up from 21.5% growth in 2010. By YE11 the mobile market penetration rate reached 55.3%, up from

46.8% at the end of 2010. BMI notes that growth in 2011 was driven by very strong subscriber uptake during Q211, Q311 and Q411, which recorded net additions of 1.041mn,1.735mn and 1.857mn subscribers respectively. This compared with just 45,000 net additions in Q111.


Full Report Details at
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The market performance from Q211 to YE11 is in line with BMI's view in our previous report that slow growth in Q111 was mainly due to urban saturation, in addition to the discounting of inactive subscribers as the process of SIM registration was completed. We expect rural roll-out to be main driver of subscriber growth in the future. As operators target rural areas, they will increasingly be targeting lower value subscribers for growth, placing downward pressure on ARPUs. In 2011 only Vodacom reports ARPU figures, which show increases in ARPU; however, we believe this is due to the phenomenal success of MPESA, which has over 80% m-commerce market share. As competition in m-commerce intensifies, we expect ARPUs to gradually decline due to rural subscriber acquisitions and price competition.

As in the last quarterly update, BMI holds the view that the most significant potential risks to our growth forecast are macroeconomic factors such as rising inflation and currency fluctuation. The potential for domestic instability and/or global macroeconomic headwinds to place limits on the sector's development remains the key risk to our otherwise positive outlook for the Tanzanian mobile market.

Tanzania's fixed-line sector fell by 7.8% q-o-q during Q411 to 161,063 according to regulatory data. The decline was the result of net losses by Zantel, although neither the operator nor regulator provided any explanation for the decline. Despite this setback, BMI expects the market to return to a period of slow and steady growth in 2012. We note that the market experienced a severe downturn in 2008 with a y-o-y contraction of 24.2%, only to increase by 39.7% in 2009. Therefore, we have left our underlying assumptions for the growth forecast for Tanzania's fixed-line sector unchanged this quarter, although it has been rebased to account for the decline in Q411. We expect continued demand for fixed-line services, most of which are based on CDMA wireless networks, despite the dominance of mobile networks.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Tanzania Mobile SWOT
- Tanzania Fixed-Line and Broadband SWOT
- Tanzania Political SWOT
- Tanzania Economic SWOT
- Tanzania Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Sub-Saharan Africa
- Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312
- Tanzania
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- ARPU
- Table: Monthly Blended ARPU
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
- Table: Tanzania Mobile Market Q411
- Market Shares
- Net Additions
- Table: Tanzania Mobile Market Net Additions Q411
- Subscriber Mix And ARPU
- 3G
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Major Players Leverage Footprint In VAS Deployment
- Country Outlook
- Mobile Operator Data
- Table: Market Overview
- Table: Airtel (formerly Celtel)
- Table: Vodacom
- Table: Zantel
- Table: Tigo
- Table: TTCL
- Table: Benson & Sesatel
- Fixed Line
- Internet
- Table: Internet Subscriptions By Type And Access
- Table: Bandwith Capacity, June 2010
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
- Table: Tanzania Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Competition
- Table: Number Of Licensed Operators
- Licensing
- Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
- Key Players
- Table: Key Players - Tanzania Telecoms Sector
Company Monitor
- Table: ATC Financial Statements (US$mn)
Company Profiles
- TTCL
- Vodacom Tanzania
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Fixed Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Internet Use
- Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary Of Terms
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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