2012-09-02 16:52:12 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2012"

BMI View: Thailand will maintain its status of key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years. However, the government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thai's production compared to its Asian rivals. Although rice farmers will directly gain from the rice guarantee buyback-programme, we are uncertain about the long-term effectiveness of these policies in enhancing Thai food-producing efficiency as well as boosting the country's export competitiveness. In the livestock sector, the lift of the EU's eight-year ban on raw Thai poultry imports should support production and help the sector against Brazil's fierce competition.

Key Forecasts

* Milk production growth to 2015/16: 30.4 % to 1.2mn tonnes. We expect the number of dairy cattle

to increase. Growth however, will be dependent on improving efficiency of domestic production as the Thai market opens up to imports from major producers such as New Zealand and Australia.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2015/16: 26.2% to 2.9mn tonnes. Growth will be supported by rising demand for carbonated soft drinks and confectionery sales.
* Corn production growth to 2015/16: 20.7% to 5.8mn tonnes. Yield improvements and the continued expansion of the upper-northern region will boost output.
* BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value: 20.9mn in 2012; growth to average 2.4% annually to 2015/16.
* Real GDP growth 2012: 4.0% chg y-o-y; to average 3.5% to 2016.
* Consumer price index 2012: 3.3% average; to average 3.0% to 2016.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451389_thailand_agribusiness_report_q4_2012. ..


Key Developments

Our view for Thailand to release part of its mounting rice stocks and to increase exports in 2012/13 Is playing out nicely, as Thailand's Commerce Minister announced in August 2012 that the government was planning to free rice from its stockpile in auctions to the end of 2012 for domestic sales and exports. We highlighted in June that the current accumulation of rice stocks in Thailand had reached unsustainable levels and thus anticipated the government would release some of its inventories as its procurement programme was completed at the end of June. However, Thai rice prices remain uncompetitive comared to other major Asian producers, and exports should remain relatively subdued in 2011/12.

Thai exports should pick up after the European Union lifted an eight-year ban on uncooked imports in April 2012. Thailand raw poultry was banned from many international markets in January 2004, when an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) bird-flu was detected. Since then, Thailand has successfully developed its export market for cooked chicken meat products and is the world's leading exporter. In 2011/12, exports are estimated to rise by 7.1%, and we expect exports to accelerate in the coming years

Given the high output and subdued domestic sugar consumption growth, we except record surplus and exports in 2012/13. Production of refined sugar is expected to increase in the coming years, as Thailand is stepping up its milling capacity. Three new mills will start operating in 2012/13, bringing the total number of sugarcane mills in the country to over 50. Sugarcane milling capacity should go up, supporting the share of refined sugar in total production.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Thailand Agriculture Swot
- Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
- Thailand Grains Outlook
- Table: Thailand Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Thailand Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Thailand Rice Outlook
- Table: Thailand Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Thailand Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Thailand Sugar Outlook
- Table: Thailand Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Table: Thailand Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Thailand Dairy Outlook
- Table: Thailand Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Thailand Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Thailand Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Thailand Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Thailand Livestock Outlook
- Table: Thailand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Thailand Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Thailand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Thailand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Thailand Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Thailand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Grains Update
- Wheat - Weak Harvests Widen Deficit
- Corn - Anticipating US Downgrades
- Soybean - Watching Latin American Plantings
- Rice - The Best Supplied Market?
- Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa: Supported Until Q412
- Coffee: Supported In Short Term
- Palm Oil: Sustained Break
- Sugar: Temporary Strength
- Cotton: Still Looking Weak
- Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
- Asia GM Outlook
- Asia Machinery Outlook
- Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Drink
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=451389&dt=t

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