2012-08-04 18:25:08 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Thailand Defence & Security Report Q3 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI's Thailand Defence & Security Report for Q312 examines the country's strategic position in South East Asia and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that Thailand has rebounded remarkably well from the disastrous flooding that wiped over US$45bn from its economy in late 2011. As a result, the danger of defence spending taking a hit has been averted, with a 7% budget increase having been announced for FY2013.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/444364_thailand_defence_security_report_q3_2 ..
has also been restored - for now, at least - as the civilian government of Yingluck Shinawatra and the royalist-military elite engage in a far-reaching process of reconciliation. However, this reconciliation of Thai elites has left much of the aggrieved population behind, and there remains a grave risk of political instability flaring up once again. The likely return of exiled leader Thaksin Shinawatra, the brother of the current prime minister, may now be acceptable to the royalist-military establishment, but Thaksin still has many implacable opponents in the country, not least former supporters who feel betrayed by the Shinawatras' accommodation with their former enemies.
Thailand's most pressing domestic security issue, the insurgency in the deep south, also remains far from being resolved. Though Yingluck visited Narathiwat in April, promising job creation and extra security, she offered little in the way of political initiatives. Thus, the escalation in southern violence witnessed in the first half of 2012 is likely to persist.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* The post-flood situation is fully updated, especially in light of the announcement in May that the rebounding economy would enable the 2013 defence budget to rise by 7%. This is a relief for the Yingluck administration, which is keen to keep the military onside as it attempts to prepare the ground for Thaksin's return to Thailand.
* The delivery to the Royal Thai Navy of a new landing platform dock (LPD) built by Singaporean defence firm ST Marine marks a significant milestone in the navy's development. More LPDs could now follow. However, the question of submarine procurement has yet to be addressed.
* A groundbreaking defence collaboration with China is also being discussed in detail. Beijing has agreed to work with the Thai defence industry on the development of a multiple rocket launch system. Thailand stands to gain from China's industrial expertise, while the Chinese see Thailand as a potentially lucrative market for defence exports in the future.
* However, the US is also keen to maintain its alliance with Thailand, as it pursues a new strategy known as the 'pivot' or 'rebalance' to Asia. The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, visited Thailand in early June and impressed on the Thais that Washington was keen to 'do more' with Bangkok in the defence field.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Thailand Security SWOT
- Thailand Defence Industry SWOT
- Thailand Political SWOT
- Thailand Economic SWOT
- Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
- Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
- Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
- Wild Cards To Watch
- South East Asia Security Overview
- The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
South East Asia In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia
- Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia
- The Outlook For South East Asia
Security Risk Analysis
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Thailand's Security Risk
- Domestic Politics
- Tense Times Ahead Following Court Approval To Amend Constitution
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Three Scenarios For The Next Decade In Thailand
- Southern Thai Muslim Insurgency
- Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents
- Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations
- Drugs Trade
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- International Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Thailand's Military Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: Thailand's Armed Forces, 2001-2008 ('000 personnel unless otherwise stated), 2001-2008
- Table: Thailand's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
- Defence Expenditure
- Table: Thailand's Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
- Table: Thailand's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Defence Trade
- Table: Thailand's Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Thailand's Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Thailand's Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Momentum Behind Rebound Not Likely To Last
- Table: Thailand - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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