2013-08-20 09:07:31 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Thailand Defence & Security Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Thailand has been attempting to make progress on two of its principal security problems, with mixed success. Tensions with Cambodia have receded - against the backdrop of an independent hearing at the International Court of Justice concerning the disputed ownership of the Preah Vihear temple, Thailand and Cambodia have taken the initiative and signed a number of agreements designed to boost co-operation and reduce tensions. However, progress on tackling the insurgency in Thailand's deep south - the second of Thailand's security problems - has been harder to achieve. In fact, Bangkok's strategy of opening talks with one of the militant factions appears to have backfired, with violence spiking in the south of the country during Q2. www.fastmr.com/prod/670595_thailand_defence_security_report_q3_2 ..
Full Report Details at
The opening of negotiations with the BRN therefore appears to have been a false dawn, with the key actors in the south seemingly not party to the Malaysia-backed talks. For now, the Yingluck Shinawatra administration is pressing on with talks with its BRN interlocutor, but critics are already saying that this approach has failed. Increasingly, there are calls for a comprehensive political solution whereby the Thai government devolves meaningful powers to the southern provinces. But as yet, Bangkok has shown little sign of favouring such an approach.
Another intractable problem for Thai society is the political division that exists between the Thaksin Shinawatra-aligned Red Shirt movement and the royalist-military elite. The relative political and social calm that currently prevails in Thailand looks set to continue in the short-to-medium term. However, the process of reconciliation begun in 2011-12 by the royalist-military elite and the elected Puea Thai administration of Yingluck Shinawatra appear to have stalled over the highly contentious issue of whether to allow former leader Thaksin, Yingluck's brother, to return to Thailand. As long as these issues remain unresolved, the country will be nervous about its political fate, as seen in May/June 2013 when Bangkok was abuzz with rumours of an imminent military coup. While no coup occurred, the military is known to be unhappy with Yingluck's attempts to negotiate in the south and with signals that she may sanction an investigation into the violent clashes between the army and Red Shirt activists in 2011 which claimed around 90 lives.
More broadly, the deep divisions that plunged Thailand into civil strife in 2010 remain and the country remains prone to further instability. The passing of Thailand's long-serving and increasingly frail monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, looms on the horizon as a potentially destabilising event that could plunge Thailand back into turmoil.
A side effect of the tension between Yingluck and the military is that she will continue to try to co-opt the army leadership by promising defence budget increases. A 1% rise to THB187.4bn (U$6.0bn) has been outlined for 2014. The military's main procurement objective is currently the acquisition of two new frigates for the navy, worth U$1bn. South Korean shipbuilder DSME is in pole position to secure the contract after senior Thai military figures said that they were minded to award the contract to the Korean firm. South Korea has little track record of selling military equipment to Thailand, but it is increasingly strong in South East Asia. A win in Thailand would underscore Seoul's strengthening hand in the regional arms market, especially in light of strong competition for the order from China, Germany and the US.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Thailand Security SWOT
- Thailand Defence & Security SWOT
- Business Environment
- Table: Thailand's Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
- Table: Thailand's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Table: Thailand's Armed Forces, 2002-2009 ('000 Personnel Unless Otherwise Stated)
- Table: Thailand's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Thailand's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Table: Thailand's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Table: Thailand's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Economic Activity
- Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia - Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Thailand Security Risk Ratings
- Thailand Defence Market Overview
- Thailand Security Overview
- Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents
- Table: Recent Japanese Initiatives In The Asia-Pacific Region
- Thai-Italian Interarms Company
- Asia Defence Overview
- Defence Budgets
- Armed Forces
- Arms Trade
- Political Risk Analysis
Global Industry Overview
- Global Political Outlook
- Defence Industry
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.