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Trinidad and Tobago Business Forecast Report Q1 2013

Trinidad and Tobago Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - new country guide report published

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2012-12-14 15:02:11 - Trinidad and Tobago Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on

Given tepid global growth, ongoing maintenance projects in Trinidad & Tobago (T&T)´s energy sector and a weak non-energy sector, we maintain our view that real GDP growth will remain slow in T&T in the coming years. As such, we forecast average growth of 3.1% between 2012 and 2017.

Despite relatively elevated energy prices, we expect T&T´s fiscal accounts to post modest deficits over the medium term due a continued rise in recurrent expenditures.

Moreover, while we expect energy exports to ensure T&T´s current account remains in surplus over the coming years, we continue to highlight that a greater diversification of exports and export markets is necessary to ensuring a robust balance of payments position over the long term.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised



down our 2012 real GDP growth forecast for T&T to 1.0% from 1.5%, as we believe continued weak energy sector output and little upside for the non-energy sector means that economic activity will be slower than we previously anticipated. That said, we anticipate a modest acceleration in real GDP growth to 2.5% in 2013 as energy output begins to come back online.

Following backdated changes to our balance of payments data, as well as the downgrade of our real GDP growth forecast, we have seen upgrades to our current account forecasts for the country.

Indeed, we now forecast T&T´s current account surplus to come in at a robust to 17.7% of GDP in 2012 and 17.4% in 2013.

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