2012-12-14 15:05:13 - Tunisia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
Although political instability is increasing, we do not believe a collapse of the coalition government is likely before parliamentary elections in June 2013. In this sense, policy decisions are likely to be based more on ensuring short-term political survival than longterm economic growth.
We see moderate growth in Tunisia in 2012 and 2013. While government spending will remain elevated, ongoing political instability is likely to limit direct investment and tourist arrivals.
Major Forecast Changes
Despite increasing political tensions, an uptick in private and government consumption will support growth in 2013. As a result, we have revised up our 2013 real GDP forecast to 3.1% from 2.9% previously.
Key Risks To Outlook
A renewal of popular protests or political gridlock could result in downside risks to
our growth forecasts.
Political unrest in large oil-producing countries such as Iraq could cause a more pronounced spike in global energy prices, leading to downside risk to our growth forecasts and upside risk to our fiscal deficit forecasts.
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