2013-01-01 02:42:53 - Tunisia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
We hold a cautiously optimistic outlook on Tunisia´s political backdrop in 2012, as the government remains under intense pressure to rapidly improve living standards. In this sense, policy decisions are likely to be based more on ensuring short-term political survival than long-term economic growth. We see moderate growth in Tunisia in 2012. While government spending will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, ongoing political instability is likely to limit direct investment.
Major Forecast Changes
Although we hold a relatively sanguine outlook on the economy, growth will be constrained by ongoing instability and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. As a result, we have lowered our 2012 real GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.5% previously.
Key Risks To Outlook
A renewal of popular protests
or political gridlock could result in downside risks to our growth forecasts. Political unrest in large oil-producing countries such as Iraq could cause a more pronounced spike in global energy prices, leading to downside risk to our growth forecasts and upside risk to our fiscal deficit forecasts.
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