2014-02-19 08:47:02 - Tunisia Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
Tunisia´s new government won the approval of the constituent assembly on March 13. However, the governing coalition holds a only slight majority in the constituent assembly. Moreover, political violence, which increased significantly as a result of the killing on February 6 of Chukri Beleid, the leader of a left-leaning political bloc, will remain elevated. As a result, policy decisions are likely to be based more on ensuring short-term political survival than long-term economic growth.
We see moderate growth in Tunisia in 2013 and 2014. While government spending will remain relatively elevated, continuing political instability is likely to limit direct investment and tourist arrivals.
Major Forecast Changes
Tunisia´s external accounts will improve this year, mainly as a result of declining imports. We forecast Tunisia´s
current account to come in deficit to the tune of 7.3% and 6.6% of GDP in 2013 and 2014 respectively, from our previous forecasts of a deficit of 8.6% in 2013 and 8.0% in 2014, and we remain confident that the country will avoid a full-blown balance of payments crisis this year.
Key Risks To Outlook
An intensification of popular protests or political gridlock could result in the fall of the current governing coalition.
Political unrest in large oil-producing countries such as Iraq could cause a more pronounced spike in global energy prices, leading to downside risk to our growth forecasts and upside risk to our fiscal deficit forecasts.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
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