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Tunisia Business Forecast Report Q2 2013 - new country guide report published
Tunisia Business Forecast Report Q2 2013 - a new country guide report on 2014-03-10 11:45:04
As a result of the assassination of a left-leaning political leader on February 6, risks of a collapse of the coalition government before parliamentary elections in June 2013 are on the rise. In this sense, policy decisions are likely to be based more on ensuring short-term political survival than on long-term economic growth. We see moderate growth in Tunisia in 2013 and 2014. While government spending will remain elevated, ongoing political instability is likely to limit direct investment and tourist arrivals.
Major Forecast Changes
Despite significant projected aid inflows, Tunisias external position will remain precarious this year. We forecast the current account to come into deficit at 8.6% of GDP in 2013, from a previous forecast of 8.3%.
Key Risks To Outlook
An intensification of popular protests or political gridlock could result in the fall of the current governing coalition. Political unrest in large oil-producing countries such as Iraq could cause a more pronounced spike in global energy prices, leading to downside risk to our growth forecasts and upside risk to our fiscal deficit forecasts.
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