2012-09-02 17:02:36 - Fast Market Research recommends "Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI View: Agriculture will continue to be one of the leading sectors in the Turkish economy, as it will benefit from increasing export opportunities in the long term in the Middle East and Asia and from a growing domestic demand base. Turkey will remain a major flour exporter, although wheat output is expected to decline in the coming years. In 2011/12, however, grains production will grow on the back of increased plantings for wheat and of higher yields for corn. Hampered by high domestic feed prices, poultry and beef production are likely to experience a modest expansion in 2011/12. Growth in the sugar industry, which has been characterised by strict government regulations, will be supported by the ongoing liberalisation process.


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Key Forecasts

* Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 14.7% to 2.6mn tonnes. Sugar production will be supported by low base effects and slight improvements in industry efficiency. More reform efforts and the return of risk appetite to private investors are likely to lead to improved equipment and production methods.
* Wheat production growth to 2016: -0.6% to 19.6mn tonnes. Wheat support prices from government purchases are still low when compared with market prices. Therefore, total support for farmers, including fertiliser, diesel, certified seed and soil, does not appear sufficient to create better production growth in the coming years.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2015/16: 12.5% to 1.5mn tonnes. This strong demand growth will be driven by increasing disposable incomes and the rise of fast-food chains and higher-end eateries providing poultry dishes.
* 2012 real GDP growth: 4.5% (down from 7.0% in 2011; predicted to average 5.4% over 2011- 2016).
* Consumer price inflation: 8.3% on average in 2012, (up from 7.7% on average in 2011).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$21.8bn in 2011/12, forecast to increase by an annual average of 2.1% between 2010/11 and 2015/16.

Key Developments

Turkey's wheat production is expected to decline in the 2012/13 season, which started in June. Owing to unfavourable weather conditions, mainly cold winter temperatures and low rainfall in the growing season, yields and area harvested are expected to be below average. The Turkish Grain Board started in 2012 to purchase wheat according to protein content, which is an indicator of the quality of the crop. This is likely to push farmers to use certified seed in bigger quantities and therefore grow higher-quality wheat in coming years.

The Energy Market Regulatory Authority announced on September 27 2011 that fuel producers must mix about 2% of ethanol into the oil sold in the country starting from January 1 2013. This is expected to increase the need for sugar and support production growth in the longer term. Because the new law asks for the ethanol produced to come from local agricultural products, we believe this could conflict with the country's production quota system and therefore accelerate the process of reform of the sugar industry. This, combined with current reforms of the sugar quotas in the EU, could help to take output higher in the medium term.

Poultry, the main livestock product produced in Turkey, is forecast to experience strong growth in 2011/12 as well as in the long term, driven by increasing domestic consumption as well as export demand. New export opportunities are arising from Middle Eastern countries, in addition to Turkey's traditional clients such as Iraq, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Iran. With Saudi Arabia lifting a seven-year ban on poultry imports following the bird flu epidemic in 2005, exports are likely to pick up in coming years.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Turkey Agriculture Swot
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
- Turkey Grains Outlook
- Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Turkey Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Turkey Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Table: Turkey Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table:Turkey Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Turkey Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Turkey Livestock Outlook
- Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table:Turkey Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table:Turkey Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Turkey Rice Outlook
- Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table:Turkey Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Turkey Sugar Outlook
- Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table:Turkey Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa: 2012 Outperformance To Continue
- Coffee: Next Support At USc130.0/lb
- Palm Oil: False Break?
- Sugar: More Fears Over Brazilian Crop
- Cotton: Technical Bounce Over?
- Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Monthly Grains Update
- Wheat - Deteriorating Supply Prospects
- Corn - Anticipating US Supply Downgrades
- Soybean- Range Trading Ahead
- Rice - Ample Supply To Keep Prices In Check
- Table:Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
- Europe GM Outlook
- Table:Brazil, United States Corn Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
- EMEA Machinery Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Confectionery
- Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016
- Processed Foods
- Table: Pasta - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016
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