2013-03-20 12:14:18 - New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

The outlook for Turkey's consumer sector is very strong thanks to the country's dynamic and youthful population in excess of 75mn, the strong economic outlook and an improving business environment. Turkey's increasing appeal to foreign investors - due to a number of factors, such as market-friendly policies and enormous demand for infrastructure development - further underpins our view that domestic demand will grow strongly over the next few years. As infrastructure develops, companies will be able to reach more consumers efficiently, speeding up the evolution of tastes and preferences across the country. Organised retail channels are likely to develop quickly to support this development as more consumers trade up from informal independent stores. Our current real GDP growth forecast for

Turkey is 4.3% and 4.7% in 2013 and 2014 respectively, a slight revision downwards. Nevertheless, if the Turkish authorities are able to weather the rebalancing process over the next few quarters, the country's long-term growth story remains an attractive one.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552409_turkey_food_drink_report_q2_2013.aspx


Headline Industry Data

* 2013 food consumption (local currency) growth = +7.0%; forecast compound annual growth to 2017= +7.8%.
* 2013 alcoholic drinks volume sales = +3.6%; forecast compound annual growth to 2017 = +4.1%.
* 2013 soft drinks volume sales = +7.1%; forecast compound annual growth to 2017 = +7.7%.
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +10.6%; forecast compound annual growth to 2017 = +12.0%.

Key Company Trends

Walmart Linked With US$4bn Migros Deal: In late 2012 it was reported that Us-based multinational retailer Walmart is in negotiations to acquire an 80% stake in Turkey's largest food retailer, Migros Turk, in a deal that could value the company at about US$4bn. While neither party has officially commented so far, Migros, which is owned by the private equity firm BC Partners, was paired with Tesco and Carrefour in 2012. However, if Walmart is indeed firmly in the picture, we see it as the most likely to close a deal, mainly due to the price tag attached.

EBI And Heineken To Unwind Partnerships: In late 2012, Dutch brewing giant Heineken announced that it will unwind its partnerships with Efes Breweries International (EBI) in Kazakhstan and Serbia. According to the agreement, Heineken will sell its 28% stake in Efes Kazakhstan to EBI, and Heineken will acquire EBI's 28% stake in Central Europe Beverages (CEB), the holding company for the firm's Serbian operations, thereby gaining full ownership. EBI will pay Heineken US$161mn as part of the deal for CEB. All transactions are expected to be completed by May 2013.

Key Risks To Outlook

External Environment Continues To Pose Downside Risks: The major risk to Turkey's macroeconomic trajectory stems from its external environment. With the eurozone debt crisis once again intensifying at an alarming rate and economic data out of the US and China disappointing in recent months, there is strong potential for trade and investment flows as well as broader economic sentiment in Turkey to decline significantly from current levels. Moreover, given Turkey's large current account deficit and dearth of foreign direct investment inflows, the country remains susceptible to external shocks and a major outflow of foreign capital. As a result, risks to our growth forecasts are firmly to the downside.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Food
- Drink
- Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast
- Consumer Outlook
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Processed Foods
- Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fish
- Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Snack Foods
- Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Dairy
- Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
- Trade
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Turkey - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q213
- Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food and Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Sub-components Q213 (out of 10)
- Turkey Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Food Production
- Confectionery
- Agriculture
- Organic Agriculture
- Halal Food
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Turkey
- Hot Drinks
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Structure Of Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Number Of Outlets
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=552409&dt=t

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