2013-03-22 17:07:51 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Turkey Retail Report Q2 2013"

Executive Summary

The Turkey Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Turkey's economic outlook of the rebalancing process over the next few quarters.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Turkish retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of depressed economic activity in the eurozone, the US and China on the Turkish consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Turkish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Turkish per capita consumer

spending is forecast to increase by 44% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 42%. The country comes fifth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs).


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552412_turkey_retail_report_q2_2013.aspx


Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to reach US$19.19bn in 2013, and to grow by 63.0% between 2013 and 2017 to US$31.29bn, as rapid urbanisation, the increasing number of working women, as well as a young, growing and increasingly affluent population boost demand for MGR outlets.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in new pension and labour code reforms which should lower labour costs for businesses. Turkish rules on foreign investment are enticing to potential overseas investors, with the government promising the same benefits and incentives to foreign investors as to domestic companies. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

* Although we are positive on Turkey's macro story long-term, a combination of weaker leading indicators and questions over export performance has prompted us to revise down our real GDP growth projections for 2013 and 2014, to 4.3% and 4.7% respectively, from a previous forecast of 4.7% and 5.4%.
* Our view is that the Central Bank will be wary of cutting rates too aggressively for fear of reversing the economic rebalancing process which, combined with the fall in consumer confidence, implies real private consumption will register growth of just 3.5% in 2013. Should the Central Bank seek stronger household expenditure, the rebound could be more significant, albeit at the expense of weaker growth in 2014.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Retail sWOT
- Political
- Economic
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f
- Organised Retail
Economic Analysis
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Turkey - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- Turkey Risk/ Reward Ratings
- Limits of Potential Returns
- Risks to Realisation of Returns
Market Overview
- Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Regional Overview
- Central And Eastern Europe Regional Overview
- Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn, unless stated)
- Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2010-2017
- Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
- Industry Forecast
- Market Overview
- Table: Table: Structure Of Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Number Of Outlets
- Table: Table: Structure Of Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format (TRYbn)
- Table: Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet 2011
Consumer Electronics
- SWOT
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
- Market Overview
Autos
- SWOT
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Turkey Automotive Production, 2010-2017
- Table: Turkey Automotive Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Turkey Automotive Trade, 2010-2017
- Competitive Landscape
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
- Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
- Sources

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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