2012-08-31 14:13:50 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Turkey Shipping Report Q3 2012"

Throughput at the port of Ambarli, Turkey's largest container port, is set to decrease in terms of tonnage in 2012, while its box volumes are to slow due to the macroeconomic outlook, with real GDP forecast to slow and Turkey's export sector heavily exposed to Europe.

Over the medium term we project stronger growth at the port of Ambarli. BMI highlights that the privatisation of Turkey's port sector has been followed by a flood of investment, with a number of projects underway to boost capacity at the nation's ports.

Headline Industry Data

* 2012 port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput forecast to decrease 4%, over the medium term we project a 24% increase.
* 2012 port of Ambarli

container throughput forecast to grow 5%, over the medium term we project a 49% increase.
* 2012 total trade growth forecast at 5.6%.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451396_turkey_shipping_report_q3_2012.aspx


Key Industry Trends

Yilport Keeping Pace With Box Trends

A new container terminal at Turkey's Yilport Gemlik is currently under construction and is on course for completion in December 2013. The port highlights two of BMI's shipping trends: the first is that the privatisation of Turkey's port sector has led to an influx in investment; and the second trend is that ports currently being constructed are being developed to cater for the global trend of mega vessels.

Azeri Oil Shipments Via Ceyhan Decrease

The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has released data on Azeri oil exports via the Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) export pipeline. A total of 12.5mn tonnes of oil were shipped from Turkey's Ceyhan Port in January-May 2012, with May's figure of 2.41mn tonnes being 13% less than previous month's 2.77mn.

Risks to Outlook

The base for decline at the country's ports stems from BMI's wary outlook for the Turkish economy. Our 2012 real GDP growth forecast for Turkey is just 3.0%, compared with 2011's growth of 8.5%.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Turkey Shipping SWOT
- Turkey Political SWOT
- Turkey Economic SWOT
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview - Container Shipping
- Executive Summary: Rate Decline Risk, Threat Of Another Year Of Losses
- Slowing Demand A Major Threat To Freight Rates
- Carriers Thinking Outside Box On Overcapacity, Can Rate War Be Avoided?
- Lines Must Tackle High Bunker Prices To Avoid Impact On 2012 Bottom Line
- Evergreen's Order Raises Questions For Future Of Box Fleet Expansions
Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Rates Struggling To Recover From 25-Year Low
- Bleak Demand Outlook Gives Cause For Concern
- Lines Withhold Payments As Shipping Struggles In Depressed Market
- Vale's Valemax Woes Continue, Vessel Values And Demand Plunging
- Orders Continue As Lines Take Advantage Of Bargain Basement Prices
- Record Dry Bulk Scrapping Levels No Match For Global Fleet
Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Bearish View Maintained Despite Industry Optimism
- Will Increased Asian Crude Imports Offset Excess Tonnage?
- More Pain For US Tanker Operators Despite Investor Confidence
- 2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran
- Tanker Operators Scrap In Desperate Attempt To Shore Up Rates
- Tanker Pools To Grow As Operators Seek Safety In Numbers
Industry Trends And Developments
Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Forecast
- Port of Ambarli
- Table: Major Port Data, 2009 - 2016
- Table: Trade Overview, 2009 - 2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009 - 2016
- Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
- Turkon Line
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- APL
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
- Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

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