2013-02-19 10:16:22 - New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Turkey Tourism Report Q1 2013"
The Turkey Tourism Report examines the latest performance of the tourism sector and looks at its longterm potential. The rate of growth in foreign tourism broadly slowed during 2011, after an impressive start earlier in the year (probably boosted by the Arab Spring, which affected tourism rivals in the region such as Egypt and Tunisia), but remained strong at just under 10% compared with 2010.
In the short term, BMI anticipates a sharp slowdown in the sector, mainly due to extremely weak economic conditions in the eurozone - a major source region - but also the fall in demand from tourists who chose Turkey as a holiday destination in 2011 because of the Arab Spring. Additionally, political instability in Syria, which
has a border with Turkey, is likely to deter visitors. Ongoing domestic political violence also remains a threat to tourism.
Provisional figures for the first three quarters of 2012 show a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in foreign visitor arrivals. The trend over the year to date however has generally been one of improvement. Indeed, in August, growth in arrivals was robust, at nearly 10% y-o-y. The key source market for tourist arrivals, Germany, recorded reasonable growth of 6% y-o-y (although half that recorded in the same period in 2011). The number of visitors from the second largest market, Russia, rose a modest 2% y-o-y (also down from some 13% in 2011). In contrast, arrivals from the UK fell about 6% y-o-y and look set to record another annual decline after falling in 2011. Overall, visitors from Europe were up marginally (+0.2% y-o-y) but the number of arrivals from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) rose a moderate 6%. There was also a continuing substantial fall in arrivals of about 35% yo- y from both Iran (a top ten source market) and Syria.
Full Report Details at
In the hospitality sector, latest provisional figures for Q312 show a small increase in total room nights of some 2%, compared with the same quarter in 2011. Growth in foreign and domestic tourist nights diverged slightly, +3% and -2% y-o-y respectively. Foreign visitors account for the bulk of total tourism nights (over 70% in Q3).
Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts and views:
* BMI's growth forecasts for foreign arrivals have been edged down slightly to 1.0 % (from 1.7% previously) and 4.0% (from 5.5%) in 2012 and 2013 respectively.
* BMI's eurozone real GDP growth forecast for 2012 has been revised down to -0.7%, from - 0.6%, rising to only 0.6% growth (down from 0.7% previously) in 2013.
* BMI expects a stronger average Turkish lira rate against the euro in 2012 (compared to our previous forecast) and continues to anticipate appreciation of the lira over the course of 2013 - providing some short-term headwinds for the tourism sector.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Turkey Tourism SWOT
- Turkey Political SWOT
- Turkey Economic SWOT
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Arrivals, 2010-2017
- Table: Hotels Data, 2010-2017 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2010-2017
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Table: Key Turkish Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
- Accommodation Developments
- Health Tourism
- Tourism Infrastructure
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Europe Security Overview
- Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- Europe In A Global Context
- Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017
- Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
- Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%)
- Dedeman Hotels & Resorts International
- Turkish Airlines
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
- Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings - Methodology
- Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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