2014-01-09 10:18:04 - United Arab Emirates Business Forecast Report Q1 2014 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
Our baseline scenario sees relatively solid growth over the coming quarters, with real GDP forecast to expand 4.1% and 3.4% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.
The outlook for Dubai has become more promising in comparison to that for Abu Dhabi, with the former benefitting from increased activity in the trade and tourism sectors, in addition to our expectation that the all-important real estate industry is now on the road to recovery.
Credit growth to the private sector will remain anaemic through 2013 as commercial banks continue to increase provisioning against potential loan losses ahead of the 2014 ´funding cliff´.
On the back of a stronger-than-expected recovery in Dubai´s residential property sector, we have revised up our 2013 and 2014 average inflation forecasts, and
now project the headline print coming in at 2.0% and 4.0% respectively.
Any attack by Islamist militants would result in a fundamental reappraisal of both the UAE, and the wider region´s, risk profile.
A further uptick in tension between the West and Iran could result in a deterioration in the UAE´s sovereign risk profile, given the close proximity and deep trade ties between the two countries.
Downside risks to oil prices in 2013 are elevated, which could undermine the UAE´s already fragile macroeconomic recovery.
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