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Uganda Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Uganda Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published

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2013-01-01 02:47:53 - Uganda Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

High interest rates and soaring inflation have had a significant impact on economic growth over the first part of the year, but we expect this to turn around over the second half of the year as downside pressure continues to diminish and growth picks back up. Political unrest in the form of peaceful demonstrations will persist over the medium term but does not pose a significant security risk.

Major Forecast Changes

We have significantly downgraded our growth forecasts owing to recent data outlining the Ugandan economy´s performance over 2011 and the fiscal year to June. We now expect real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2012, compared with the 6.2% projection published in our last quarterly report. Following a recent budget address



and new government finance figures, we have upgraded our fiscal deficit forecast, from 7.4% of GDP (excluding grants), to 5.2%. Owing to faster-than-expected disinflation, we now forecast headline price growth falling to 7.1% by the end of 2012, compared with a previous forecast of 11.3%, with this metric projected to average 14.8% for the year. Ugandan authorities have again revised their historical balance of payments data, which has led us to revise our own forecasts. We now expect the current account deficit to equal 10.3% of GDP, compared with previous projections of 12.5%.

Key Risks To Outlook

Weather always poses risks to our outlook, as Uganda is heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture. Adverse weather conditions can seriously hamper economic output, while favourable weather can boost productivity. If there are further delays to oil production, or if the industry moves more quickly than expected, we would adjust our forecasts accordingly. Simmering domestic tensions amid public protests, as well as unrest in neighbouring countries such as South Sudan, could negatively affect Uganda if they seriously escalate.

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