2013-10-31 16:04:05 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Ukraine Autos Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
In Ukraine, vehicle production declined 49.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first seven months of the year, to 23,311 units. During this period, passenger car production declined 50.0% y-o-y, to 21,353 units, and commercial vehicle (CV) production dropped 56.2% y-o-y, to 875 units.
On the back of output volumes over the year, and our view that many European markets, the country's leading trade partners, are bottoming out somewhat, we are revising our 2013 production forecast to a 40.9% fall, from a 60.9% drop previously. We now forecast a 40% decline in the passenger car market, down from a 60% drop previously, and a 50% decline in commercial vehicle (CV) segment, down from a 70% decline previously.
Vehicle production in Ukraine fell 54.2% y-o-y
in the first six months of the year, to 18,240 units. During this period, passenger car production declined 54.2% y-o-y, to 16,740 units, and commercial vehicle (CV) production dropped 63.7% y-o-y, to 657 units.
Full Report Details at
In positive news, Skoda Auto, the Czech subsidiary of German automaker Volkswagen, has started manufacturing the third-generation Octavia in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Skoda has collaborated with local partner Eurocar to produce the Octavia sedan at Solomonovo in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Czech automaker is manufacturing the sedan in alliance with Azia Avto at Ust-Kamenogorsk in Kazakhstan. The new Octavia was scheduled for launch in Kazakhstan in July, while it has already hit the Ukrainian market.
Despite the forecast upgrades, we still expect to see substantial declines in output over the year, and maintain our generally bearish sentiment towards the segment. In 2012, vehicle production in Ukraine declined 27.1%, to 76,281 units. Over the year, passenger car production declined 28.6%, to 69,687 units, and CV production declined 6.7%, to 6,954 units.
In the first seven months of the year, passenger car sales in Ukraine declined 1.6% y-o-y, to 122,222 units. On the back of an increasingly weak macro picture and artificially strong growth in 2012, we forecast a 3% decline in passenger car sales in 2013.
BMI maintains a bearish outlook on private consumption in the country. Indeed, we expect to see a slight slowdown in consumption over the year, as unemployment continues to increase and real wage growth slows. Further, our expectations for a currency devaluation in H213 also implies a future reduction in household purchasing power (see 'Dwindling Reserves Reinforce Devaluation Risks', July 10). As the domestic passenger car market is dominated by imported vehicles, this poses a considerable downside risk to our 2013 sales forecast, as this would increase the price of imports in real terms.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Production And Sales
- Table: Ukraine Vehicle Production, 2011-2017
- Table: Ukraine Vehicle Sales, 2011-2017
- Passenger Vehicles
- Table: Passenger Car Sales and Production Forecasts
- Table: Passenger Car Production By Brand
- Table: Passenger Car Sales By Brand
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Commercial Vehicle Production Forecasts
- Table: Commercial Vehicle Production By Brand
- Table: Commercial Vehicle Sales Forecasts
- Table: Commercial Vehicle Sales By Brand
- GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Autos Risk Reward Ratings Europe
- Shipping Boom
- Company Monitor
Global Industry Overview
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Automobile Industry
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