2013-03-29 04:51:23 - Fast Market Research recommends "Ukraine Tourism Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
The Ukraine Tourism Report examines the significant long-term potential being offered by the tourism industry, but also highlights the potential downward pressure that economic uncertainty in Europe could have on currently strong arrival numbers. We also analyse the growth strategies being employed by the country to continue to attract arrivals.
A weakening global growth picture bodes badly for Ukraine's export-dependent economy and a faltering domestic demand picture underpin our lower growth estimates for the rest of 2012. Ukraine's economy expanded at the slowest pace since the 2009 recession in Q112, posting real GDP growth of just 2.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). We forecast many of the economic imbalances to correct themselves going into 2013, when we forecast GDP to hit 3.4%, up from
2.5% GDP growth in 2012. The recession subdued arrival numbers in 2009, dropping by 18%, and as the majority of arrivals come from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), 2010's arrival numbers did not entirely rebound. For 2010 and 2011, BMI calculates there was continued growth in tourist arrival numbers, with a jump from 20.8mn in 2009 to 21.2mn in 2010 and 21.4mn in 2011. From 2012 to the end of our forecast period in 2017, we forecast the industry's total arrivals to grow an average of about 8%.
Full Report Details at
Ukraine was a co-host of the Euro 2012 with Poland in June-July and the tournament was expected to be a key driver for the country's tourism industry during our forecast period. Not only did it bring thousands of tourists to the country, the requirements to be chosen as a host for the competition included an array of infrastructure investment that can only be regarded as positive for the industry. Significant attention was afforded to the event and the potential for it to provide a boost to the economy. That said, it was plagued by poor publicity in months leading up to tournament and has been slightly overshadowed to some extent by the Olympics, which start at the end of July. As such, while some boost to growth is likely to have been generated, we remain sceptical about the ambitious expectations of a surge in economic activity.
Hungarian budget airline Wizz Air started offering services from Ukraine in 2008 and BMI expects the trend of low-cost carriers in the country will increase in the coming years. This would be a positive development as it would drive down fare prices, making travel within, to and from Ukraine more affordable, increasing tourism numbers. Wizz Air's entrance to the market has already prompted the largest Ukrainian carrier, Aerosvit, to reduce fares. Since March 2011, Wizz Air, Italy's Wind Jet and Turkey's Pegasus Airlines all fly to Ukrainian cities. The authorities at Boryspil International Airport, which serves Kiev, are constructing another terminal for international and budget flights. Terminal D was completed in winter 2011 but it required another six months for commissioning. The new terminal only served football fans during Euro 2012.
The January 2010 presidential election, the country's first since 2004's Orange Revolution, had the potential to destabilise the country politically but turned out better than expected, with political risk continuing to subside. President Viktor Yanukovych successfully formed a coalition government in March 2010 and it obtained a new US$15.2bn Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF (after the original loan was suspended in November 2009), which are all positive steps for stability. That said, the SBA has been on hold awaiting Ukraine to carry out the reforms spelled out under the SBA with the IMF. In November, the IMF said that it will send a mission to Ukraine to start talks on a new loan program. The success of these talks and continued cooperation with the IMF is crucial to anchoring confidence in Ukraine's economy and underpinning macroeconomic stability.
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