2012-09-05 09:53:11 - United Arab Emirates Business Forecast Report Q2 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
The UAEs reputation as a safe haven in a volatile region will continue to serve the economy well, although growth will begin to suffer in early 2012 as global headwinds pick up.
Abu Dhabi will outperform Dubai over the coming years given the formers large-scale investment plans targeting the infrastructure sector and ongoing concerns surrounding the latters lingering debt repayment schedule.
With credit conditions still relatively weak, a pronounced recovery in non-hydrocarbon sector growth appears unlikely at this stage. Major Forecast Changes
Given its relative openness compared with regional peers in the Gulf, the UAE will likely be the first to suffer from the global slowdown. We have revised down our 2012 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% accordingly.
We have revised our current
account forecasts and are now projecting a surplus of only 7.6% of GDP in 2012 as oil receipts fall and reexports to Iran are curbed as a result of more stringent international sanctions.
Key Risks To Outlook
Any outbreaks of public unrest would have significant repercussions for the countrys reputation as an inherently stable environment for foreign investment.
A deterioration in regional financial markets remains a key risk given Dubais large debt repayment schedule in 2012.
With global growth slowing, downside risks to oil prices in 2012 are elevated, which could undermine the UAEs already fragile macroeconomic recovery.The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
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