2013-02-28 15:04:19 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "United Arab Emirates Power Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: Confronted by a sustained increase in demand over the next decade, the UAE authorities at both federal and emirate levels will continue to prioritise generating capacity expansion programmes. Though we question whether targets will be met with the anticipated speed, the government and its parastatal utilities are doing most things right and we expect the sector to keep pace with rising demand. Additionally, a key facet of the country's power market looking forward will be its transition to a much wider range of fuel sources, spanning to traditional steam and gas turbines to carbon-light technologies such as renewables and nuclear.
While recently released historical data have prompted some revisions in our estimates and forecasts for power generation and consumption,
we maintain our view that expansion is the name of the game in the UAE's electricity market. Although a shortage of global liquidity somehow muddied the outlook for the UAE, a sanguine macroeconomic outlook on the UAE economy heading into 2013 supports plans for hikes in generating capacity. With more than US$8bn expected to be invested in the period up to 2020, we thus anticipate that the market will remain highly attractive to regional and international developers, with several major players vying for contracts in the well-established thermal segment, as well as in the emerging renewables and nuclear ones:
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536385_united_arab_emirates_power_report_q1_ ..
* BMI anticipates that natural gas-fired generation will continue to fire the lion's share of generation (86.12% in 2021), as the country perseveres with fossil-fuel-based capacity additions with a view to take advantage of its abundant and cheap domestic resources. Yet, gas generation will grow by a more modest 3.42% between 2012 and 2021, as new technologies are developed.
* In the thermal sphere, the UAE has shown interest in developing some coal-fired capacity. Most notably, plans for coal-fired power stations have been floated in Dubai; however, we are not yet factoring coal into the wider energy mix.
* Alongside thermal, the UAE has been among the most vocal and proactive supporter of nuclear in the region, with plans advancing fast and currently ahead of schedule. The Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation granted the licence in mid-July 2012 and gave the green light for the building of two advanced pressurised water reactors, with each having a 1,400 megawatt (MW) capacity. In Q312, deals with six companies were signed to supply uranium over a 15-year period, and in November 2012 the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp started to raise US$2bn from bank loans to finance construction.
* Lastly, renewable and chiefly solar energy sources, are growing in importance in the emirates, with Dubai aiming to generate at least 5% of its energy from renewables by 2030, and Abu Dhabi set to see a 13MW phase of the planned 1,000MW Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum Solar Park completed in 2013.
That said, we highlight that the tight timeframes for many of these ambitious new projects will present logistical challenges; a risk already factored in our forecasts.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- United Arab Emirates Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- United Arab Emirates Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
- Table: UAE Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: UAE Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021
- Table: UAE Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: UAE Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021
- Table: Planned UAE Nuclear Power Reactors
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: UAE Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: UAE Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: UAE Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: UAE Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021
- Table: UAE Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- United Arab Emirates Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation And Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Table: United Arab Emirates Power Projects Database
- Dubai Electricity And Water Authority (DEWA)
- Regional Overview
- MEA Industry Overview
- Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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