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United Kingdom Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

United Kingdom Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published


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2013-01-01 02:53:53 - United Kingdom Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

The economy is recovering, but with fiscal cuts looming and unemployment stubbornly high, the rate of growth will be fairly tepid. Given the marked slowdown in domestic and global economic activity, we now expect the Bank of England to hold the bank rate at 0.50% through to end-2013, with scope for further additions to the asset purchase programme. Despite numerous ructions between the ruling Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, we expect the coalition government to hold firm through to the next parliamentary election in 2015.

Major Forecast Changes

There are no Major Forecast Changes this quarter.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risks To Medium-Term Growth: There are significant downside risks to our economic growth forecasts, particularly stemming from the impact of fiscal consolidation

 

 

and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

Upside Risks To Inflation: Should the pound remain broadly weak and global commodity prices edge higher, we would warn of upside risks to our inflation forecasts.

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