2013-01-01 14:25:52 - United Kingdom Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

The economy is recovering, but with fiscal cuts looming and unemployment stubbornly high, the rate of growth will be fairly tepid.

Given the marked slowdown in domestic and global economic activity we expect the Bank of England to raise the asset purchase program ceiling to GBP500bn from GBP375bn at present.

Despite numerous ructions between the ruling Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, we expect the coalition government to hold firm through to the next parliamentary election in 2015.

Major Forecast Changes

There are no major forecast changes this quarter.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risks To Medium-Term Growth: There are significant downside risks to our economic growth forecasts, particularly stemming from the impact of fiscal consolidation and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

Upside Risks

 

 

To Inflation: Should the pound remain broadly weak and global commodity prices edge higher, we would warn of upside risks to our inflation forecasts. Although there is little scope for a substantial and sustained surge in inflation, we believe that there are risks of inflation remaining stubbornly above target.

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