2013-02-19 10:16:39 - Fast Market Research recommends "United States Autos Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI believes that the risks facing the US autos sector in 2013 could be enough to derail its longer term recovery, which has so far been healthy. Our forecasts now show the industry returning to the psychological benchmark of 16mn units (for light vehicles) well within our five-year forecast period. However, if potential risks materialise in 2013, this longer-term view comes under threat.
Our estimates for 2012 are very much in line with the industry's performance so far, particularly with passenger cars outperforming light trucks. Indeed, we have raised our outlook slightly for passenger cars to 18% growth from 15% previously, as post-Hurricane Sandy replacement demand has boosted sales in the latter months of the year. Sales for November were up
21% year-on-year (y-o-y), taking 11M12 car sales to growth of 19%.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536592_united_states_autos_report_q1_2013.as ..
The biggest risk facing the industry as a whole, however, is the threat of the fiscal cliff, which would see consumers and businesses alike forced to rethink purchasing decisions if taxes increase. BMI already forecasts a marked slowing of growth in 2013, largely based on our view that the US is a mature market, and the current growth is driven by pent-up demand following years of putting off purchases since the global financial crisis. We expect total vehicle sales growth (including commercial vehicles) of around 4%, which sounds like a dramatic slowdown from the double-digit growth of 2012, but is still reasonably high for a developed market.
There is still positive news for our view of the US as an attractive production and export base, however. Chrysler has announced investment of US$240mn for three Michigan plants, creating 1,250 jobs. The bulk of the investment will go toward Chrysler's engine facilities, enabling the company to be more flexible in its powertrain output. BMI sees this, and indeed investment by all three of the US carmakers in their engine facilities, as a further push toward improving the fuel economy of their models and generally updating their product range, which has contributed to the market's double-digit growth in 2012.
Indeed, BMI has identified manufacturing as one of the sectors to drive US GDP growth over the coming five-to-10 years. Honda Motor's announcement that it expects to be a net exporter of vehicles from North America within two years aligns with this view. It also backs our view that the US auto sector is regaining a competitive edge as a production and export hub.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: US Auto Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Economic Outlook
- Weakness In Most Categories of GDP
- Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
- Risks To Outlook
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas
- Table: US - Top 10 New Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
- Table: North American Light Vehicle Output (CBUs)
- Table: US - Top 10 New Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
- Sector Developments
- Production For Export
- Alternative Fuels
- General Motors
- Johnson Controls
- Ford Motor
Global Industry Overview
- Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
- Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
- UK Leads As Germany Falters
- Russia And Brazil Go From Strength To Strength
- United States Demographic Data
- Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Automobile Industry
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