2012-09-04 08:58:38 - Fast Market Research recommends "United States Food & Drink Report Q3 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

Our overarching view on the US economy is that the recovery will remain slow and erratic, with both fears of recession and hopes of a boom both likely to be dashed. We are forecasting real private consumption growth of 2.1% in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013, from 2.2% in 2011. Private consumption has been responsible for most of real GDP growth since the middle of 2011 (two-thirds of growth in Q311, and one-half in Q411), but we expect the consumer's contribution to fade as 2012 progresses due to the absence of strong wage growth. While overall real consumption is increasing, the main source of the increase has been durable goods as opposed to nondurable goods such as food. We see

this is as a sign that US consumers are paring back on non-essential, non-durable goods but loading up on more essential durable goods such as automobiles, for which there has been pent-up demand since the recession began five years ago. The composition of consumption plays into our long-term view that domestic private consumption is set to decline as a percentage of GDP, and that the 'Great Recession' has altered US consumer habits on a semi-permanent basis.


Full Report Details at
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Headline Industry Data (local currency terms)

* 2012 per capita food consumption = +1.72%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016 = +2.12%
* 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.09%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016 = +3.46%.
* 2012 soft drink value sales = +2.52%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016 = +2.87%
* 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +2.60%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016 = +3.56%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Activist Investor Pushing For PepsiCo Split: In May 2012, an activist fund named Relational Investors purchased a US$600mn stake in PepsiCo in the belief that the firm will benefit from spinning off its US beverage business. The fund, run by Ralph Whitworth, purchased nearly 9mn shares, which represents a stake of around 0.6% of the soft drink and snack maker. BMI has previously suggested that PepsiCo is likely benefit from being split into two separate companies and has also suggested that Anheuser-Busch InBev could be a potential acquirer of the soft drink side's assets.

Momentum At Walmart Points To Strategy Success: US retail giant Walmart has posted a further uptick in its US sales growth for the first quarter of 2012. In the three months to April 30, sales at its US division increased by 5.9% to US$66.3bn, including comparable-stores sales growth of 2.6%. This was ahead of its own forecasts and represents the fastest rate of growth for three years. The firm has benefited from a renewed focus on value while also being boosted by signs of a modest recovery within the consumer sector.

Key Risks To Outlook

Risks Remain To Downside: The risks to our consumer outlook are mostly to the downside. We expect private consumption growth to remain subdued, constrained by a weak labour market, elevated savings rates and stagnant house prices, while government deficit reduction will weigh on economic activity. In the meantime, the European crisis will continue to pose downside risks to the export sector. Another downside risk to our outlook is a major domestic policy error, especially on the fiscal side, which could push the US into recession.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- US Food Industry SWOT
- US Drinks Industry SWOT
- US Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
- BMI's Core Global Industry Views
- Table: Core Views
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: GDP By Expenditure
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Dairy
- Table: Dairy Production, Consumption & Trade
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Beer
- Spirits
- Wine
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
Food
- Key Industry Trends And Developments
- United Biscuits Snack Unit May Not Be Good Fit For Kellogg
- Heinz's Emerging Markets Numbers Strong In 2011/2012
- Emerging Markets Hold The Key
- Interest In Organic Foods Remains Strong
- Dairy Market Of Interest To Pepsi
- International Snack Expansion For PepsiCo Followed By Others
- Yum! Brands To Expand Beyond China
- Sara Lee Split To Streamline Business
- Private Labels Gain Shelf Space, Driving Consolidation
- Targeting Of Hispanic Community A Key Growth Area
- Market Overview
- Food Consumption
- Confectionery
- Canned Food
- Agriculture
Drink
- Key Industry Trends And Developments
- Activist Investor Pushing For PepsiCo Split
- Pernod Ricard Moving On From Havana Club Battle
- Craft Beer Continues To Outperform; Signs Of Life In Mainstream Segment
- Beam Outperformance Reflected In Increased Valuation
- Coke Linked To Monster Acquisition, But Price Could Be Stumbling Block
- Fast-Growing Coconut Water Category Attracts Further Investment
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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