2013-02-01 01:57:28 - Fast Market Research recommends "United States Food & Drink Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI Industry View

Our estimate for real private consumption growth in 2012 has dropped to 2.1% from 2.2%, while we have also cut it for 2013 to 2.3% from 2.4%. The risks to our 2013 forecast are to the downside, with consumption growth weakening in Q312 and payroll tax cuts ending at the beginning of 2013. Household balance sheets remain weak despite a slow recovery over the past three years, keeping consumers reluctant to borrow and to spend. With the labour market remaining weak, income growth has also been subdued. We have seen improvements in the consumer story with saving rates decreasing slightly and disposable growth starting to catch up with consumption but we see a long way before consumption returns

to pre-crisis levels.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529525_united_states_food_drink_report_q1_20 ..


Headline Industry Data (local currency terms)

* 2013 per capita food consumption = +1.8%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2017 = +2.6%.
* 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.5%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2017 = +3.6%.
* 2013 soft drink value sales = +3.1%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2017 = +2.1%.
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016 = +1.7 %.

Key Industry Trends And DevelopmentsDean Foods To Sell Morningstar Dairy Business To Saputo US-based Dean Foods will sell its Morningstar dairy business to Canadian dairy products maker Saputo for US$1.45bn. The deal will enable Saputo to broaden its product range and expand its business footprint in the US. The Morningstar sale marks a major step in the break-up plans of Dean, which is spinning off an additional business into WhiteWave Foods. Saputo will fund the acquisition through a newly committed bank loan. The deal is scheduled to be complete by end-2012.

Tesco Seeks US Exit

UK-retailer Tesco is mulling over the sale of its Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market chain of grocery stores and exit from the US market altogether. Various companies are seeking to buy a part or all Fresh & Easy stores in the US. Tesco operates more than 6,000 Fresh & Easy outlets globally. Moreover, Fresh & Easy CEO Tim Mason is leaving the company after 30 years, marking the latest in a string of high-profile departures by Tesco veterans. Tesco entered the US in 2007, establishing stores in California, Arizona and Nevada.

UK-based mass grocery retailer Tesco is having a hard time turning a profit at its US Fresh & Easy business. Given the problems Tesco has encountered domestically in 2012 following an earlier profit warning (its first in about 20 years), there is increasing pressure on underperforming elements of its international business. According to Shore Capital, losses at Fresh & Easy could climb to nearly GBP130mn in 2012/2013. For some time now BMI has been sceptical about the ability of Fresh & Easy to turn around and become a viable contributor to Tesco's earnings. The longer it takes for Fresh & Easy to break even, the more pressure Tesco CEO Philip Clarke is likely to come under to cut its losses in the US. This scenario very likely has more weight now given that greater losses are pencilled in for 2012 and in light of the competitiveness issues suddenly thrust upon Tesco in the UK following the profit warning.

Key Risks To OutlookRisks Remain To Downside: The risks to our consumer outlook are mostly to the downside. We expect private consumption growth to remain subdued, constrained by a weak labour market, elevated savings rates and stagnant house prices, while government deficit reduction will weigh on economic activity. In the meantime, the European crisis will continue to pose downside risks to the export sector. Another downside risk to our outlook is a major domestic policy error, especially on the fiscal side, which could push the US into recession.

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