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United States Real Estate Report Q4 2013 - New Market Research Report

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2013-12-06 13:59:04 - Fast Market Research recommends "United States Real Estate Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

In spite of the relative optimism surrounding the US commercial real estate sector in 2013 as the economy starts to gather steam, the sector is facing many of the same problems as 2012: the physical drag of the fiscal cliff, Chinese growth bottoming out, geopolitical risk and the euro debt and slow eurozone economies. However the risks are set to be less severe as balance sheets for consumers and businesses have improved and extra liquidity in the market should induce more transactions and reduce market associated risks.

Commercial real estate (CRE) expansion is dependent on a healthy macroeconomic environment. We have recently revised down our 2013 US real GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.8%, but maintain that the US economy

is gaining steam and is set for more rapid expansion. Indeed, the downward revision to 2013's growth forecast is mostly attributable to the Q1 figure and base effects from Q412, and we believe risks are to our 2014 and 2015 real GDP growth forecasts of 2.7% and 2.6% are predominantly to the upside. Poor economic growth affects the real estate sector as it dampens both property fundamentals and capital markets, putting downwards pressure on tenant retentions, rental growth, yields, development activity, financing and asset values.

Full Report Details at
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With a focus on the cities of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of economic on a market that can dictate regional performance. Despite the bleak horizon outlined at the beginning of 2012, the US commercial real estate market is continuing to show signs of a recovery in 2013, albeit a cautious one. Positive consumer sentiment has gone some way to keeping real estate investment afloat. The overriding view seems to be that the outlook for commercial real estate is improving, but that ongoing vulnerability in the market is leading to continued caution among real estate players. This indicates that while the recovery is under way, it will continue to be slow.

Key Points:

* The US real estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors in the country in the context of a gradual return to growth.
* Our long held view for the US construction sector to return to growth in 2012 after a seven year recession has played out right on cue. Driven by the residential segment, real construction industry value growth for 2012 came in at 3.2%, very close to our 3.4% estimate. With our core views remaining in place for residential construction to continue its recovery, we maintain our view that the US construction sector will grow in 2013 and 2014. However, base effects and minimal contribution from other segments of the construction industry will mean this growth rate will likely be lower than before. Over the longer term, construction growth will very much depend on resolving the political deadlock, a broader pick-up in fiscal flexibility, and the ability to entice greater private investment into the sector.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
- BMI Industry View
- Political
- Economic
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Industry Forecast
- Office
- Table: Forecast Rents, 2013 (US$ per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
- Retail
- Table: Forecast Rents, 2013 (US$ per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
- Industrial
- Table: Forecast Rents, 2013 (US$ per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2017 (%)
- Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Table: US Construction And Infrastructure Data, 2011-2016
- Table: US Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Short-Term: Deceleration Trend
- Infrastructure Weighed Down By Gridlocked Government
- Long-Term: Muted Growth To Persist
Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
- Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- United States Risks/Reward Ratings
- Rewards
- Risks
Market Overview
- Market Overview
- Office
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases, H212
- Retail
- Table: Historic Rents, 2011-2012 (US$ per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H212
- Industrial
- Table: Historic Rents, 2011-2012 (US$ per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases, H212
Competitive Landscape
- Competitive Landscape
- Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Company Profile
- Bechtel
- Fluor Corporation
- Turner Construction Company
Demographic Forecast
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sources
- Risk Reward Rating Methodology
- Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Rating Indicators

Full Table of Contents is available at:

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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