2013-02-03 16:37:26 - Fast Market Research recommends "Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Conventional gas deposits should enable the country to boost its output and exports, with some surplus gas destined for a Sasol-operated GTL scheme. Oil volumes may depend, however, on the utilisation of oil shale deposits - an area in which the outlook is far less certain.
The main trends and developments in Uzbekistan's oil & gas sector are:
* Uzbekistan has an estimated 340bn barrels (bbl) of oil shale deposits and Uzbekneftegaz plans to establish a US$600mn joint venture (JV) project that will convert the oil shale into petroleum products. Production is due to start by 2013, with an annual capacity of 1mn tonnes of liquid hydrocarbons.
* Without early success in enhanced recovery, shale-based production and/or new field
development, we believe crude oil supply - including lease condensate but excluding natural gas liquids - will decline to 51,470b/d by 2016, bringing total liquids production to 96,180b/d. However, additional gas liquids volumes - thanks to our forecast for higher gas output from Uzbekistan - should help stem a rapid fall, total liquids output steadying at about 95,840b/d in 2021.
* A gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant planned by Sasol, Petronas and Uzbekneftegaz may soon be developed if a final investment decision (FID) is made by the second half of 2013 as expected. It is estimated that the total cost of the scheme will be around US$2.74bn.
* We estimate that gas production came in at about 58.3bcm in 2011 and continued to dip lower to 57.7bcm in 2012. We expect this trend to be reversed in 2013, however, and to rise to 60.4bcm by 2016 as new fields enter production. Gas output could rise to 66.6bcm by 2021, based on current investment activities. Risk appears to be to the upside in terms of output, thanks to the combined efforts of domestic and international companies, plus infrastructure expansion and rising regional demand for Uzbek gas.
* Domestic gas demand is expected to rise from an estimated 46.3bcm in 2012bcm to 48.1bcm in 2016, allowing for 12.2bcm of export capacity by 2016. A long-term increase in domestic gas demand will be constrained by Uzbekistan's export obligations, particularly to China. At levels that we have forecast for gas production, we expect both domestic consumption and exports to underperform real demand and capacity respectively; consumption is expected to stay relatively flat, growing slowly to 49.8bcm, with net exports at about 16.8bcm by 2021. If Uzbekistan decides to prioritise gas exports further, it would pose significant downside risks to our consumption projections. Uzbekistan's dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country's oil and gas export revenues. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US99.10/barrel (bbl), falling to US$96.20/bbl in 2014. Global GDP in 2013 is forecast at 3.0%, up from an assumed 2.6% in 2012, reflecting some recovery in the US. Uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation and an apparent Chinese slowdown will continue to hamper growth. For 2014, growth is estimated at 3.2%.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529530_uzbekistan_oil_and_gas_report_q1_2013 ..
Partial Table of Contents:
- Uzbekistan Oil and Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Uzbekistan Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Uzbekistan Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Uzbekistan Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Uzbekistan Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Uzbekistan Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Uzbekistan Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Uzbekistan Refining - Production and Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Uzbekistan Refining - Production and Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Overview
- Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Risks
- Uzbekistan Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview
- Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Projects Database
- Overview/State Role
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan
- Oil Pipelines
- Gas Processing Plants
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) - Summary
- Petronas - Summary
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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