2012-09-05 09:37:08 - Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q2 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

Petroleum-related economic activity will drive the majority of growth, but increased government consumption in the run-up to the 2012 presidential election will also feature.

Inflation will remain elevated at the highest level in Latin America, and nationalisations are likely to rise.

Major Forecast Changes

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election, we hold to all our major forecasts for Venezuela for 2012.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Higher than expected global oil prices could boost real GDP growth and the countrys fiscal outlook, although we would not view any growth increase as sustainable without more structural economic reforms.

Downside Risks: A rapid slump in global oil prices, possibly triggered by a Chinese hard landing or a double-dip recession in the US and Europe, could prove

 

 

catastrophic for Venezuela. Furthermore, given the high costs of exploiting Venezuelan oil – notably in the Orinoco Belt fields – and the predatory fiscal regime, we could see the oil output fall if oil prices were to decline below a certain level.The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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