2013-01-01 02:57:54 - Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

Venezuela will very likely face major political and economic uncertainty in the run-up to and immediate aftermath of the October 2012 presidential elections. Rampant monetary stimulus and a relatively weak foreign reserve position mean a devaluation following the election is highly likely. Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our 2012 real GDP growth forecast to 3.5%, from 2.5% previously, as high oil prices will very likely allow the government to drive domestic demand ahead of the October presidential ballot.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Higher than expected oil prices and more aggressive monetary stimulus could

 

 

see real GDP growth exceed our moderate 3.5% forecast in 2012. Downside Risks: Huge uncertainty surrounding policy trajectory beyond the election poses a significant downside risk to our growth forecast.

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