2013-01-01 14:28:53 - Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

Social tensions in Venezuela will remain elevated following President Hugo Chávez´s re-election in October 2012.

Rampant monetary stimulus and an ongoing deterioration of foreign reserves will likely lead to currency devaluation in 2013.

Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our 2012 real GDP growth forecast to 4.7%, from 3.5% previously, as high oil prices have allowed the government to bolster growth through social spending.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Higher than expected oil prices and more aggressive monetary stimulus could see real GDP growth exceed our 2.6% forecast in 2013.

Downside Risks:

 

 

Huge uncertainty surrounding policy trajectory following President Chávez´s re-election poses a significant downside risk to our growth forecast.

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