2013-09-17 09:02:18 - New Computer Technology research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
We have made a downward revision to our forecast for Venezuela's IT market in the Q4 2013 following a downgrade of the economic growth outlook by our Country Risk team. There are downside risks from the uncertainty of the political and economic situation following the death of Hugo Chavez.
Furthermore, the devaluation of the bolivar in February 2013 has raised the cost of imported products, which we expect to squeeze unit shipments, particularly at the high end of the market. While there are many challenges for IT market growth, BMI continues to point to opportunities in Venezuela. It is one of the smaller markets in its region. However, it has a low PC penetration rate from which we infer there is
potential for strong medium-term growth. Further, government PC programmes will boost sales, although most units will be procured locally with little scope for international vendors to compete.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673261_venezuela_information_technology_repo ..
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: From VEB5.7bn in 2012 to VEB6.8bn in 2013. The weaker growth environment, as well as the devaluation of the bolivar, resulted in a downgrade to our forecast for 2013 as it increases the price of imported hardware. Meanwhile, cheap computer programmes, and the PCs for schools programmes is a driver of unit shipments.
Software Sales: From VEB1.5bn in 2012 to VEB1.9bn in 2013. High levels of software piracy and the government's commitment to open source software will limit opportunities for proprietary software vendors.
IT Services Sales: From VEB1.3bn in 2012 to VEB1.7bn in 2013. We expect 75% of demand will come from large companies, with the oil sector still significant despite the fall in oil prices. However, there is medium-term potential for IT services sales to SMEs, particularly cost-saving cloud computing services.
Venezuela's score remained flat in the Q4 2013 update with the impact of the devaluation of the bolivar in February 2013 already factored into our forecasts.
Key Trends & Developments
The outlook for the PC market has worsened with the devaluation of the bolivar in February 2013, however opportunities still exist in the market. Venezuelan computer shipments are forecast to continue to grow due to the government's affordable computer programmes, computers for education initiatives and more local production of inexpensive computers. The 'Va a mi Casa' programme has been extended to high school students, with the first laptops delivered to high school students in April and May 2013.The latest target is for 2.6mn computers distributed by 2014, with the government reporting that the 2mn mark was passed in 2012. Meanwhile, VIT announced three domestically produced tablets targeted at the local market that could see the trend of tablet sales growth hitting Venezuela in H213 and 2014.
Government support for PC shipments contrasts with the negative impact of the support for open source software. The promotion of open source software is a core Venezuelan government IT policy that has been carried over by the new government of Nicholas Maduro. Although the government has said open source adoption by public sector organisations has been hindered by 'worker opposition', the government has maintained its commitment to the policy and, in April 2012, the Venezuelan government's IT centre CNTI signed an agreement with internal auditing watchdog Sunai to monitor the migration to open source software.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Venezuela IT Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (VEFmn, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Venezuela Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: VENEZUELA - GDP BY EXPENDITURE, REAL GROWTH %
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Americas IT Risk/Reward Ratings
- IT Services
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Regulatory Authority
- Venezuela de Industria Tecnologica
- Oracle Corp
- Table: Oracle: Selected Acquisitions
- Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- IT Industry Forecasts
- IT Risk/Reward Ratings - Methodology
- Table: IT Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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