2013-02-03 08:33:13 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Venezuela Retail Report Q1 2013"

The Venezuelan Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Venezuela's economic outlook of high inflation, a lack of investment in the productive sectors of the economy, political risk and an upcoming local currency devaluation.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Venezuelan retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of deteriorating regional credit risk on the Venezuelan consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report analyses the growth and risk management strategies being used by the leading players in the Venezuelan retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by

the local market.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529536_venezuela_retail_report_q1_2013.aspx


Venezuelan per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a paltry 0.8% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional average of 17%. The country comes fifth (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and underperforms significantly for risk.

Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the strongest performer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$3.87bn in 2013 to US$4.49bn by 2016, a rise of 16. 0%.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government programmes that provide new financing options for consumers. Venezuela is not one of the largest markets in the region, but the low household penetration of many products suggests there is latent growth potential. The market offers continued growth potential in key digital product groups such as computers (less than 15% penetration), notebook computers and LCD television sets.

Over the past quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* We have revised up our real GDP growth estimate for Venezuela from 3.5% to 4.7% for 2012, and from 2.2% to 2.6% for 2013. Stronger-than-expected credit-fuelled private consumption and government-financed investment have seen real GDP growth come in above our expectations in H112. However, we believe growth will peak in 2012 and slow over the next few years given persisting economic imbalances and the political risks associated with the country.
* Higher lending rates, combined with the erosion of purchasing power that will result from the upcoming currency devaluation, lead BMI to believe that real private consumption growth will decline from 5.5% in 2012 to 2.0% in 2013. We therefore forecast private consumption's contribution to real GDP growth to decline from 3.8 percentage points (pp) in 2012 to only 1.9pp in 2013.
* BMI's forecast for slowing private consumption after the October 2012 presidential election is likely to mean that the current acceleration in retail sales is unsustainable. Information compiled by the Central Bank of Venezuela during the first seven months of 2012 reveals that retail sales grew 8.71% year-on-year (y-o-y). Retail sales peaked in June 2012 at 15.22%.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Venezuela Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Venezuela Political SWOT
- Venezuela Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Venezuela Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f
- Organised Retail
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
- Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
- Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Regional Retail Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Venezuela's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Leading Retailers
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets
- Table: Structure Of Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
- Table: Average Annual Value Sales By Unit Per Format (2009)
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Venezuela Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
- AV Devices
- Table: AV Sales,2009-2016
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Electronics Market
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Venezuela Autos Industry SWOT
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Sales
- Table: Venezuela Autos Sales, 2009-2016
- Production
- Table: Venezuela Autos Production, 2009-2016
- Trade
- Table: Venezuela Autos Trade, 2009-2016
- Table: Venezuela Car Ownership Rate, 2010-2016
- Passenger Cars
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=529536&dt=t

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