Free Submission Public Relations &
Deutsch English

Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published

Print article Print article
2013-01-01 02:59:54 - Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

Data suggests that economic activity will continue to moderate, and we believe that uncertainties over unemployment and corporate earnings will prompt households and businesses to cut back on spending. However, the central bank´s rate cuts will have a significant impact on gross fixed capital formation growth in 2013. Accordingly, we have revised our real GDP growth forecast upward, from 6.5% to 7.0% for 2013. Despite two consecutive months of contraction in headline consumer price inflation (CPI), which have fuelled fears of a deflationary spiral in Vietnam, we believe that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will refrain from introducing further rate cuts in 2012.

We believe that efforts to reduce inventory levels will begin to wane and that prices will stabilise



towards the end of the year. The Vietnamese government´s decision to advance VND30trn (US$1.4bn) in capital expenditure, which was originally allocated for 2013, will have only a moderate impact on the fiscal budget. We do not foresee any difficulties in the government´s ability to finance the planned increase in spending. However, we do see a need to boost efforts in order to spur private sector participation in government-led investment projects over the coming years.

Major Forecast Changes

We have upgraded our real GDP growth forecast from 6.5% to 7.0% for 2013. We see increasing evidence that total public expenditure will exceed the government´s allocated budget in 2012, resulting in budget deficits of 5.2% and 5.3% of GDP in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Growth Risks From Rising Commodity Prices: Should commodity prices witness a strong rebound, we could see the central bank adopting a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. This could present significant downside risks to economic growth. Further Deterioration In External Demand: Despite multiple devaluations since late 2009, Vietnam´s trade deficit has witnessed a steady improvement. However, should we fail to see a sustained improvement in the trade balance, we would not be surprised to see the Vietnamese dong coming under further selling pressures.

Click for report details: ..

Browse all All Sectors Country Guide Reports ..

Browse all All Sectors Company Profile Reports ..

Browse all Latest Country Guide Reports ..

About Us is a leading online business information aggregator with over 300,000 market reports and company profiles available to our clients. Our extensive range of reports are sourced from the leading publishers of business information and provide clients with the widest range of information available. In terms of company profiles,’s online database allows clients access to market and corporate information to over 100,000 different companies. We provide clients with a fully indexed database of information where clients can find specific market reports on their niche industry sectors of interest.

Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

Disclaimer: If you have any questions regarding information in these press releases please contact the company added in the press release. Please do not contact pr-inside. We will not be able to assist you. PR-inside disclaims contents contained in this release.
Latest News
Read the Latest News


Terms & Conditions | Privacy | About us | Contact | BidVertiser