2013-03-20 12:14:11 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: Whilst revisions in historical data have prompted some numerical changes in our forecasts, our overall outlook for Vietnam's power sector remains unchanged. Acceleration in real GDP growth in the second half of 2012 reinforces our belief that electricity consumption is poised for a stronger performance in 2013. Similarly, we hold a relatively constructive view for the expansion of the country's power infrastructure on the back of the official launch of Vietnam's competitive generation market. Nonetheless, we reiterate that low tariffs, rising dependence on imported fuel (namely coal) and lack of regulatory clarity remain key downside risks.
Our relatively bullish long-term outlook for Vietnam's power sector, predicated on our view that the country will see strong and prolonged economic growth,
remains fully in place, and revisions in our historical data series and the availability of new information have actually prompted a further upwards revision of our short and long term forecasts across the power sector.
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Hikes in power generating capacity and significant improvements in the transmission and distribution (T&D) segment are a recognised necessity, with Vietnam's Master Plan VII predicting that the country will need 75,000MW of installed capacity by 2020. In addition, the launch of Vietnam's new competitive generation market (CGM) on July 1 2012 is certainly a step in the right direction, with an increasing number of international actors having showed interests in the market recently (as illustrated by the projects in the pipeline for development after 2015).
For instance, it is of interest to note that Japanese company Sumitomo Corporation has lodged an application to secure an investment licence for the construction of a 1,320MW coal-fired thermoelectric plant in Khanh Hoa in February 2013. The plant, which is scheduled to be constructed under a buildoperate- transfer scheme, is likely to be erected in the Van Phong Economic Zone in Ninh Hoa Town and is expected to become the largest facility of its kind in the country.
That said, a number of pertinent risks remain prominent, leading us to believe that a discrepancy will certainly emerge between planned and realised capacity. Most notably:
* Regulatory uncertainty and delays remain significant. For instance, the cancellations of nine small- to medium-capacity hydropower plants in October 2012 highlighted an increasing lack of opportunities for small-scale hydropower generation, due to growing environmental concerns. However, we believe that the cancellations also displayed a disparity between provincial and federal level planning.
* Low tariffs and dependence on imported fuel (namely coal) as a key impediment to the power sector's growth potential, and news that theft of electricity is on the rise are certainly worrying.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Vietnam Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Vietnam Power Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Vietnam Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Vietnam Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Table: Vietnam Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Vietnam Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Table: Vietnam - Planned and Proposed Nuclear Power Reactorsto 2030
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Vietnam Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Vietnam Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Vietnam Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Vietnam Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Table: Vietnam Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Vietnam Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
- Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Vietnam Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulations and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Vietnam Power Projects Database
- Table: Vietnam Major Projects - Power
- Electricity Of Vietnam (EVN)
- Asia Regional Overview
- Aversion To Nuclear Energy Wearing Off
- Coal To Grow, Supported By Imports
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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