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West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q3 2013

West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - new country guide report published

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2014-02-19 08:03:02 - West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - a new country guide report on

We maintain our view for a continued modest recovery in the West Caribbean region over the coming quarters. While we expect the more diversified economies will benefit from slightly stronger global growth this year, we anticipate that those most reliant on tourism and financial services are likely to continue to struggle.

Our Commodities team expects food price inflation to moderate in the quarters ahead after having remained somewhat elevated in H113. As such, we believe the supply-side inflationary pressures that have impacted the region in recent quarters will gradually ease.

Two of the largest economies in the region are set for stagnant growth in the coming years. While we maintain our view that Puerto Rico will see positive economic growth this year,



after years of economic contraction, it will remain quite weak, as we believe Governor Alejandro García Padilla´s stimulus plan falls short of necessary structural reforms.

And although Jamaica has successfully concluded its IMF-brokered restructuring deal with international creditors, its economy is set to struggle over the medium term.

Major Forecast Changes

We have upgraded the Dominican Republic´s real GDP forecast for 2013 and 2014 to 4.4% and 4.6% respectively, on the back of stronger private consumption amid monetary easing and above-expectation growth of 3.9% in 2012.

We have downgraded Curacao´s real GDP growth over the coming years, as a slowdown in Venezuela´s oil sector is likely to impact the island´s refinery activity. We forecast real GDP growth will fall from 0.5% in 2012 to 0.2% in 2013 and 0.1% in 2014.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: A stronger than expected economic recovery in the US could lead to larger export receipts, stronger remittances and a boost in tourism for many West Caribbean economies.

Downside Risks: An escalation of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis or a slowing of the US economic recovery could feed through to slower export and tourism receipts for many of these economies, weighing on economic growth.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

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